The Giants are getting the band back together. Brian Sabean and the rest of the gang had a busy day at the Winter Meetings yesterday, signing Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro to reprise their roles from the 2012 season. This comes a few weeks after Jeremy Affeldt re-signed as well. In bringing back these three important contributors to the World Series-winning team, the Giants check off the boxes on their off-season wish (needs) list, although they now have little room to do much else. The cynics will moan about how they haven't learned their lesson from the Aubrey Huff debacle -- you shouldn't overpay to bring back aging veterans just for sentimental reasons. And there's plenty of reason to be concerned. All three of these guys got more money and more years than we would have liked. But that doesn't change the fact that these were the best options at their respective positions. The talent pool in the Giants' minor league system isn't exactly overflowing. And given how the market was playing out, these terms were probably necessary. The Giants are built to win now, so if they have to Aaron Rowand these guys a couple years down the road, well, so be it. The Giants won 2 World Series during the Aaron Rowand era, and he wasn't even on the team for one of them. It can be done.
Pagan signed for 4 years and $40 million. The obvious concern is that much of Pagan's value lies in his legs: stealing bases, beating out infield singles, ranging in center field, setting franchise records for triples, etc. Legs don't usually age particularly well. Pagan's 2012 was fantastic -- 4 Wins Above Replacement. He's unlikely to repeat that, just because...well just because. So if he starts rapidly declining, years 3 and 4 of this contract could easily be a sunk cost. On the other hand, analysts like to claim these days that 1 Win Above Replacement "costs" about $5 million (and rising) on the open market. By that measure, to make this contract "worth it", Pagan simply needs to be a 2-Win player on average. That seems more than doable. But the main reason I'm happy to see Pagan back is the other options out there. In other words, he's not Shane Victorino, whom the Red Sox just overpaid because he has a fun nickname and he's a "star". Puke. The Giants have their core set with Posey, Sandoval, and the starting pitching. Making a huge splash with Michael Bourne or Josh Hamilton would have had the same age concerns and would have put more strain on the club when negotiating with their young hitters. The lack of production from Gary Brown in the minors this year definitely hurt, as he was sort of the plan for 2013. But now that he's not a viable option to start in the Majors, Pagan was really the only acceptable option.
Pretty similar situation with Scutaro, who signed for 3 years, $20 million. It's too much, but it also is how much the market dictated for the best option at 2nd base. Maybe they could have cobbled together an acceptable season from some combination of Joaquin Arias, Ryan Theriot, and even Freddy Sanchez. But that doesn't sound like a plan suitable for a team trying to cement a dynasty. Scutaro probably has one or two more productive years in him, and he's not blocking a prospect who is ready to play in the Big Leagues, either (like Aubrey Huff was).
The Jeremy Affeldt signing is the most puzzling. Three years at $6M apiece seems out of this world for a middle reliever/set-up man. And it would be, except unfortunately, we exist in a world in which the Dodgers also exist. It's horrifying on multiple levels. Specifically on this front, though. Since the Dodgers wipe themselves with thousand-dollar bills, they had no problem throwing 3 years and $22.5 million at Brandon League, a guy with a similar role to Affeldt. I believe that this contract was offered specifically to set the market high on Affeldt, maybe even to price the Giants out so they could lure him away themselves. At the very least, they succeeded in making the Giants overpay for Affeldt. Must be nice, Ned Colletti.
So it looks the 2012 Giants will be essentially the same as the 2013 team. I've got no beef with that. Of course that includes Gregor Blanco starting in LF, which is not ideal (really the Giants needed 2 outfielders, which makes the Pagan deal even more necessary). The fact that Scutaro and Affeldt may have priced the Giants out of a platoon option in left is probably the largest reason not to like the deals. That and the fact that the Giants are usually pretty good at grabbing effective relievers out of the bargain bin (Casilla, Lopez, Mijares, etc).
Speaking of effective relievers, let's talk about the elephant in the room: Brian Wilson. It's looking increasingly like he won't return, after the Giants decided to not tender him a contract in arbitration. Upset that the Giants did not want to pay around double his market value, there's talk of B Weez taking his beard-growing talents to LA, where he lives in the off-season. Again, this would be horrifying. But let's look at the upside. He may not be ready for Opening Day and he may not be fully effective all year. He's coming off his second Tommy John surgery. There's a real chance he'll Jason Schmidt the Dodgers and become one of the best Giants ever. Aside from Dodger-fail reasons, from a baseball perspective, the risk/reward just doesn't seem worth it. When Wilson went down last year, it wasn't the closer position that suffered (remember, Casilla was a marked improvement before he faltered, at which point the committee--led by Romo--did just fine). The biggest loss for the bullpen was its depth. Below average guys had to take some of the middle innings, and they didn't fare too well. But with Mijares added, I think there's enough. Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Mijares, and Kontos make up a bullpen that most teams would lust for (Without Guillermo Mota uglying them up, they are a handsome group, no?). Bringing Wilson back comes with the possibility that he just might not be that effective, and with that comes a closer controversy, and it won't be one of those "good problems to have" like they have going on over at Candlestick. For the price Wilson probably wants, it's just not worth the risk.
