Transaction Attitudes

The more I think about the Jonathan-Sanchez-for-Melky-Cabrera trade the Giants made a few days ago, the less I like it. I don't hate it, but I just like it less. I can't seem to get past the fact that the Royals are selling way high on Cabrera (after a career year), and the Giants are selling way low on Sanchez (after a disappointing and injury-prone year). While it's extremely difficult to compare value between a hitter and a pitcher, and while I think at this present moment, Sanchez and Cabrera are probably about equal commodities, it's their paths to their respective values that makes me nervous. Sanchez certainly has the higher ceiling, and Melky is due for some regression after a season aided by a pretty high BABIP (.332, 42 points higher than his previous career average). Now, it's possible that Sanchez's value is on the decline, whereas Cabrera's is on the up-an-up (again, just look a the season's they had last year). But it's still hard to believe that the best Sabean could get for a left-hander with ace-like stuff is an average-defensive center fielder whose career numbers suggest he'd have to fight hard for a starting job on most teams. What's nice about this trade, is that come next offseason, we'll have a pretty objective measure of who won it. Both players are free agents after the 2012 campaign, so we'll see who gets the better contract. That should be fun. [Note that I've ignored that the Giants also gave up AA pitcher Ryan Verdugo in the trade. This is something that should be considered, but that would require assessing value on a minor league pitcher, which is way out of my pay grade.]

The Giants needed a leadoff hitter/center fielder, and they did have a starting pitcher to spare. So I do think this trade makes them a better team. But that previous sentence was written by me, a guy who tends to skew optimistically whenever the Giants make a transaction. It's just my nature. I think in terms of what new players could do, rather than what they likely will do, and it always paints a prettier picture. Melky Cabrera? Oh yeah, he'll have 200 hits again, while peppering Triples Alley all season, setting the table for healthy versions of Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, and Buster Posey. Meanwhile, Vogelsong's remarkable story will continue, and Zito will bounce back, so everything's cool on the starting pitching side.
I don't like thinking about the other side of possibility: Cabrera will amount to be nothing more than a minor upgrade over Andres Torres, while the Giants miss Johnny Sanchez's arm due to Zito being Zito and Vogelsong being a fluke. Meanwhile Sanchez will finally find the plate in Kansas City and put up Cy Young numbers.

This is why I'm not the General Manager of the Giants. It's also why I don't take the Sabean-bashing to the level that most bloggers do. Because, unfortunately, I think myself and the Giants' front office often think alike. Making moves based on what they hope might happen, rather than assessing value based on the most likely future production. I've actually been behind a lot of Sabean's bad moves at the time of their conception: After 2007, they needed to replace Barry Bonds's pop in the lineup. Aaron Rowand? Yeah he hit 27 homers in '06. He'll do. After 2006, they needed to replace Jason Schmidt in the rotation. Barry Zito? Man, coming over to the National League, he'll be sure to dominate! Sure, they overpaid, but it's not my money. Etc Etc.

My point is this: sign Carlos Beltran, because he's definitely going to stay healthy this year and you can get him to agree to play left field, so Schierholtz moves back to right. Simple.

-Mike the Menace