Why the Giants Might Not Win the NL West

To counterbalance the if-things-go-right tone of yesterday's post, I feel like there's a few things that should be mentioned. Giants fans should be optimistic about the upcoming season, but that optimism should be qualified with the word "cautious". The G's are still a team with a minuscule margin for error, both in individual games, and in the larger trends of a full season. If they improve in the ways I suggested they would yesterday, they'll be fine. But those improvements are not guarantees. There are plenty of things that make me as uncomfortable as when you are on a flight and they make you return your seatback to its upright position:

• In our heads, we're all penciling in Posey to revert back to his 2010 form. But even though this will be the 4th Major League season he's appeared in, he still could suffer from sophomore-like struggles. Last year he was more than a solid player (OPS+ of 115), but he wasn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball when he went down (he was slugging .389 as compared to .505 in 2010). Unless Belt breaks out, Sandoval will likely be the only other threat to consistently cause major damage with the bat. 
• Speaking of penciling in production, can Ryan Vogelsong continue his miracle story? The news today that he'll miss about 10 days of workouts due to a back strain doesn't really worry me, but objectively speaking, a repeat performance seems very unlikely. As long as he keeps painting those corners, he'll continue to be a huge contributor, but don't expect him to lead the team in ERA again.
• Is Brian Wilson fully fixed? The Giants bullpen showed they can handle themselves when he's not available, but they're definitely a more complete team when he's firing on all cylinders.
• The Giants gave up rotation depth when they traded Jonathan Sanchez. In return they got potentially excellent offense in Melky Cabrerea, but given that he's coming off his best season by far, he's still an unknown quantity. 
• Let's be honest - Freddy Sanchez is made of yogurt. The last time he played more than 140 games was 2008. "A full season of Freddy Sanchez" is not something to be counted on.

When you play in so many low-scoring, close games, as the Giants have and will continue to do, it doesn't take much to turn a 95-win season into an 85-win season. This is why the stagnant offseason left so many fans frustrated. The Giants will be competitive for certain, but there's a good amount that has to go right for them to make the playoffs. Another impact bat, like the Cardinals' new right fielder, would have increased that margin for when some things inevitably go wrong.  

Once the roster is set, things are largely out of the control of the front office. The 2010 and 2011 Giants are perfect examples of how differently those things can break. I'd be a lot more comfortable if the front office had put together a roster with a little more cushion.