And so we've finally arrived at the one-third (plus 1 game) mark of the season. The all-important (read: arbitrary) marker where we can make judgements about who teams "actually are" and what they are "made of". Some of these judgements may even hold true at the end of the season. So what can we say about the Giants at this point? They are, pretty much, who we thought they were. They're capable but flawed. A high ceiling but with a low margin for error.
The pitching covers up the offensive ineptitudes, while the defense has probably cost them a few wins on its own. Perhaps I should have written "low margin for errors" -- a league-leading 51 in 55 games has been good for 30 unearned runs* (also leading the league*). League average is 20 unearned runs*, but if the Giants were the excellent defensive team they were supposed to be, they might even be in first place, given their style of playing in a lot of close games. That's a stretch, but it's possible.
As it is, they're 31-24 (a 91-win pace) and 3 games out of first behind the Dodgers, who have fallen back to Earth a bit. If, before the season, I told you that Lincecum would be pitching like Zito usually does, Brian Wilson would miss the whole season, Sandoval would miss significant time, and Belt + Huff are no better than they were last year, you probably would be happy to see the standings where they are right now. Then again, if I told you that Zito would have an ERA under 3.00, Gregor Blanco is a real-life Major League lead-off hitter, and Melky Cabrera is running away with the Team MVP award, you probably wouldn't be thrilled. All of those anomalies, except for the Wilson injury, are likely to regress towards where we expected them to be by the season's end. So if all that cancels itself out, where will the Giants make up those 3 games? Well, for one, I think the Dodgers will continue to fall off, especially since I told the baseball god who is responsible for Matt Kemp's hamstring that it was Kemp who ate its leftover half-sandwich in the office fridge. I think 91 wins can take this division. Secondly, those errors have already started to level off. Just one in the 6-1 homestand that just ended. Other than that, they'll have to keep applying the formula, and if they continue to win, the "chemistry" argument will start to snowball and everything will take care of itself and they might was well just bring the trophy to SF right now. Right?
More specifically, the strengths and weaknesses of 2012:
I'm still not going to let the front office off the hook for letting Carlos Beltran walk away, but credit Sabean and Co. for putting together a very productive and pretty darned fun-to-watch outfield. Safe to say the Melky-for-Sanchez trade was a win. Same for the Pagan-for-Torres-and-Ramirez. And Blanco is the leading candidate to get this year's "Andres Torres/Ryan Vogelsong Award for Being Awesome When No One Thought You Would Be Awesome". For position players, those three lead the team in Wins Above Replacement.
The infield, on the other hand, is nothing short of a disaster. Getting Pablo back will help significantly, but as it is now, I have a hard time believing opposing managers don't chuckle when they see the line-up card. Until Brandon Belt can start substituting home runs for strike-outs, first base is a massive disappointment. Huff looks completely finished, even after that gritty bases-loaded walk he worked last Saturday. Theriot's picked it up a bit, but they still miss Freddy Sanchez (they'll probably continue to miss him all year). Joaquin Arias has been a nice surprise defensively, but he's sub-replacement level at the plate. And if Crawford makes errors at the pace he's at (he has been improving, for the record), he might be the least valuable everyday player in the league. Come back, Pablo. And stay away from those 21-year-olds while you're at it.
Starting pitching continues to carry the team, as per the usual. Cain is Cain. Vogelsong is Cain. Bumgarner is Cain. Barry Zito's non-evil twin captured actual Barry Zito and is holding him tied up in a basement somewhere. Real Barry Zito is crafty and resilient though. Probably only a matter of time before he gnaws through the duct tape and returns to the mound. And Lincecum...ugh. Not even worth talking about. Either he'll figure it out and the Giants will be good to go, or he won't, and they probably won't win. Here's the interesting question though: say he turns it around and Zito continues to be good. Who get's bumped from the post-season rotation?
The only problem with the bullpen has been its lack of depth due to injury. Wilson (elbow), and Mota (cough syrup) are long-term losses, while Casilla, Romo, and Affeldt have all been unavailable at times. And that's when Edlefsen has to come in in the 8th inning and promptly give up 2 runs to put the game out of reach. But for the most part, Bochy should be able to order the Affeldt/Romo/Lopez/Casilla combo platter for the late innings, and it's delish.
All in all, this baseball season has been a pretty weird one. Puljos is bad, the Mets are good, etc. I'm still sticking with the Giants finding their way to the top of the NL West by the end.
*That's primary research right there, folks. It's only a matter of time before you'll be required to pay to become a Left Coast Lean "insider" for gems like that.
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