The Muscle Melk Man - Building Numbers, Breaking Hearts

Imagine one night you decide not to go to a party, but instead opt to have a quiet evening at a coffee shop. And you meet this girl, who seems pretty and nice and fairly easy to talk to. But after you go out with her a few times, you just can't get enough of her. She's smart, funny, and she seems to get even better looking each time you notice her. Great skin, gorgeous eyes, and an hourglass figure you wouldn't believe. And my god, she's into you too! That never happens! Moreover, you found out from your friends that that party you didn't go to wasn't even that great (so you didn't even give up a lot for the chance to meet this chick). All your friends are like "jebus, how the hell did you score THAT girl?" And you're all like "I know, right?" And after explaining how she didn't used to be this good looking, but it all came together for her a couple years ago, you slyly add,  "and by the way, they're real and they're spectacular".

And then you find out Melky Cabrera tested positive for PEDs. 

Turns out Melky had numbers-enhancement surgery and didn't tell any of us. Personally, I would guess it happened two years ago before he put together a very good season with Kansas City. But this year with the Giants, it was going to a new level. Talk about your all-time too-goo-to-be-true's. The Giants will be without their hit factory for the remainder of the regular season, and the first 5 games of the post-season, if they make it that far. There's no way around it: This. Is. Devastating. 

I'm pretty mad at Melky for this. For making us believe in this great story. For getting our hopes up that he could hit .350 for the rest of the year. I feel sorry for the Melk Men and Maids for idolizing a cheater. [Side note: before you get all puffed up and try to call me out for being a hypocrite because I only have nice things to say about Barry Bonds, remember that Bonds never broke any rules. Melky did]. He broke our hearts, too. 

He was leading the league in hits and runs. By one statistical measure (Baseball Reference's Wins Above Replacement), he is the 4th best player in the league*. There's no way the Giants can replace that kind of production. Buster Posey's shot at 100 RBIs probably just vanished. For the Giants to make the playoffs, everyone will have to step it up. And that includes the pitching. It would be very unwise to count this team out, but also naive to think this isn't a blow to morale. 

Just when things looked like they were falling into place, too. During Tuesday night's win against the Nationals, I remarked to myself "this is probably the best line-up the Giants have put out there this year. Probably in years." A white-hot Posey, Scutaro in for Theriot, Pablo off the DL, Belt on an up-swing of his pendulum season, Hunter Pence figuring things out, and of course Melky, who was the beacon of consistent awesomeness. (McCovey Chronicles, as always, beat me to this point, here and here). 

However, after sorting through all my anger and disappointment, I think I've arrived at a place of "is what it is" nonchalance. After all, if you had told me after the Jonathan Sanchez trade that Melky would be a 4.7 win player in 2012, I would have been thrilled. We already got all the production out of him that we could have expected going into the year. If the Giants fail to make the playoffs, it won't be because of Melky Cabrera. It will be because they weren't good enough, as a team. There's room for improvement with the players already in place that can fill the Melky void. Belt can stay hot. The bullpen can pitch better. Timmy can find mediocrity. Pablo is back. 

Still, this sucks.


*Not to mention the All-Star Game MVP, helping the National League get home field advantage in the World Series. Will the American League representative demand that the All-Star game be replayed? Maybe then Mets fans can do a better job of voting David Wright in.

Three things to watch when the 49ers open their preseason tonight at the Stick

We are finally here folks.  The NFL is back for another season.  I've got to say it's great to start the season without the BS of a labor agreement in flux and having to see Roger Goodell's mug on the tube day in and day out.

The 49ers are currently 8/1 odds to win the Superbowl with only New England and Green Bay ahead of them.  Even though this is not important at all, if I were a betting man these odds look pretty nice right about now.

With that out of the way, let's focus on this week.  What story lines will emerge?  Who will move up on the depth charts?  Here are three things (In no particular order) to watch for tonight at the Stick.

1.) The battle for the back-up QB position.

As it stands right now, Colin Kaepernick is first in line behind Alex Smith.  Look for Johnson to make his mark to take over that spot starting tonight.  Both guys should get plenty of reps and with Johnson's knowledge of Harb's offense he should be able to jump right in and move the ball down the field.

Who do you think will win the spot?



2.) There's a  healthy stable of running backs on the squad... Who's going to shine the brightest (Gore not included)?

La Michael James (LMJ), drafted in the 2nd round of this year's draft has the potential to help his team out immediately.  As most of us know by now, LMJ is a freak of an athlete and his ability to make people miss along with his toughness makes him a leading candidate to become a break out star in his first year in the league.  That being said, the presence of LMJ as well as the addition of veteran Brandon Jacobs to the back field is going to get the best out of every running back on the team.  Along with Gore the Niners have Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon.  Look for Hunter and Dixon along with LMJ to get the bulk of the carries tonight.  Don't want to speak too early, but I feel LMJ is going to break a huge one tonight, but them again he's a Duck and now a Niner... What's not to love!?!?!


3.) So the biggest and baddest defense in the league last year return almost everyone... the question is, who are the new guys that are going to be fighting for playing time on the #1 D in the league?

Can't wait for tonight!  Should be fun to watch things unfold.  Harb's has a history to never show his cards in the preseason as well as barely play any starters until the final game, if that.  Have a great weekend!

Whooooo's got it better than us??!?!?!?!

Peace,

Mr. A

A Farewell to Shierholtz

Nate the Great. Nasty Nate. The JuggerNate. These are the nicknames that we as Giants fans won't get to use anymore. At least until we get another dude named Nathan on the team. But Nate Schierholtz was more than just his fun nicknames. I'll miss him, and not just because he and I are body dopplegangers. Plus he gets bonus points for being a local boy.

I'll remember him hitting with no batting gloves. I'll remember him swinging over and over again at that slider on his back foot. Mostly I'll remember his defense. He made sweet sweet love to right field at AT&T Park, and it was a joy to watch. No doubt one of the best arms we've ever seen out there. I'll remember him grabbing and then losing a starting outfield job over and over again. And that, really, will be his legacy. I used to feel sorry for Nate, but the fact is, he never did truly grab the bull by the horns to become a mainstay in the line-up. People would say "just let him play for a whole year and see what he does". But that's not really how it works in baseball, especially in Bruce Bochy's dugout*. If you're one of those guys who "needs to be out there every day", then you're probably not good enough to be out there every day. Nonetheless, Nate Schierholtz was a nice 4th outfielder, and a good Giant.

And with the departure of Schierholtz also comes the end of an era for Giants baseball. With the release of Manny Burriss coming days before the Schierholtz trade, none of those "prospects" from the late '00s remain on the team. Kevin Frandsen, Freddy Lewis, Eugenio Velez, John Bowker, Travis Ishikawa, Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, Brian Bocock, Dan Ortmeier, Manny Burriss, Nate Schierholtz. These names represent the utterly futile efforts of the Giants to develop hitting talent during that decade. This is one era I'm not sad to see end, even though those guys will always hold an ironically special place in my heart. Hopefully the next crop of Belt, Pill, Crawford, Gillaspie, Culberson, and some kid named Posey will do better. (To be fair, Pablo Sandoval is on the borderline, but probably should be included in that first group).

So enjoy Philadelphia, Nasty Nate. You'll no doubt see those numbers get a bump from that band box of a stadium you'll be playing in, and you'll look especially good playing next to Juan Pierre LOL! Here's to hoping you finally get that regular starting job. Good night, sweet prince.



*Unless you're Brandon Crawford.

Reaction to Hunter Pence Trade

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

These gloomy quotes, from George Santayana and Albert Einstein, respectively, are the first words that came to mind after hearing that the Giants acquired Hunter Pence from the Phillies in exchange for Nate Schierholtz, catcher Tommy Joseph (the organization's #2 rated prospect), and Seth Rosin (a single-A pitching throw-in). The move is eerily similar to last season's deadline acquisition of Carlos Beltran. They gave up a top prospect (last year it was their #1 prospect in pitcher Zack Wheeler) for a hard-hitting right fielder from an NL East team. Last year's didn't work out so well. Of course, that was in no way Beltran's fault. After a minor injury, he raked the ball all over the place while the rest of the offense dried up like beef jerky, leading to a distant second-place finish.

Once again, the Giants have, on paper, the best team in the division, and they've added an upgrade to their offense, which can sputter at times (shocking, I know). They are a better team now than they were before the trade. I wonder by how much though. His numbers this year are really not that great. His .784 OPS is way down from last year's .954. When looking at OPS+ (which adjusts for ballpark and normalizes OPS for easy comparison to the rest of the league), his 109 is actually less than Schierholtz's 115. And he's at least a minor downgrade in right field defense compared to Blanco or Shierholtz. With just 2 months left to go this season, will Pence really make a significant difference in the pennant race?

The good news is that Pence is actually hitting better away from hitter-friendly Philadelphia, and has particularly good numbers at AT&T (.329 average with three doubles and five home runs in 76 career at-bats here). Plus there's the intangibles of giving the clubhouse a boost, and I'm sure the fans will quickly fall in love with his quirkiness and all-out efforts on the field. Once Sandoval returns from injury, the Ginats can trot out a fairly faersome midle of the order. (Yes, those typos are on purpose. I tried several times to type out that sentence correctly, but every time it would immediately crash my computer).

Still, more than anything, this trade highlights once again why the Giants should have just re-signed Carlos Beltran (or not traded for him at all). In this whole saga, I give the front office poor marks for the lack of budgetary foresight when they made that trade combined with cheapness and lack of offensive-fortitude foresight during the offseason. Beltran just stroked his 24th dong-job of the season to put his OPS at .893. The Giants will likely have to pay Pence about $13 million next year, which (look at that!) is exactly what Beltran will make next year.

The fact is there's really no way to evaluate this trade at this time. Tommy Joseph is a good few years away from the majors, and we just don't know how good Pence will hit for the Giants. But with Posey and Hector Sanchez under team control, the Giants are probably set behind the dish for the foreseeable future. So using Joseph as a trade chip was probably the best use for him. In flipping him with Shierholtz, they get a proven star, who hopefully can light a fire and contribute heavily to a World Series run. As I've said before, the window is open now; best to take advantage of it while you can. The Giants are probably a little better right now, and probably a little worse for the future (a thin farm system did just get thinner).

I'm still hoping the Giants' biggest deadline pick-up will be a Tim Lincecum who is worth watching.