"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
These gloomy quotes, from George Santayana and Albert Einstein, respectively, are the first words that came to mind after hearing that the Giants acquired Hunter Pence from the Phillies in exchange for Nate Schierholtz, catcher Tommy Joseph (the organization's #2 rated prospect), and Seth Rosin (a single-A pitching throw-in). The move is eerily similar to last season's deadline acquisition of Carlos Beltran. They gave up a top prospect (last year it was their #1 prospect in pitcher Zack Wheeler) for a hard-hitting right fielder from an NL East team. Last year's didn't work out so well. Of course, that was in no way Beltran's fault. After a minor injury, he raked the ball all over the place while the rest of the offense dried up like beef jerky, leading to a distant second-place finish.
Once again, the Giants have, on paper, the best team in the division, and they've added an upgrade to their offense, which can sputter at times (shocking, I know). They are a better team now than they were before the trade. I wonder by how much though. His numbers this year are really not that great. His .784 OPS is way down from last year's .954. When looking at OPS+ (which adjusts for ballpark and normalizes OPS for easy comparison to the rest of the league), his 109 is actually less than Schierholtz's 115. And he's at least a minor downgrade in right field defense compared to Blanco or Shierholtz. With just 2 months left to go this season, will Pence really make a significant difference in the pennant race?
The good news is that Pence is actually hitting better away from hitter-friendly Philadelphia, and has particularly good numbers at AT&T (.329 average with three doubles and five home runs in 76 career at-bats here). Plus there's the intangibles of giving the clubhouse a boost, and I'm sure the fans will quickly fall in love with his quirkiness and all-out efforts on the field. Once Sandoval returns from injury, the Ginats can trot out a fairly faersome midle of the order. (Yes, those typos are on purpose. I tried several times to type out that sentence correctly, but every time it would immediately crash my computer).
Still, more than anything, this trade highlights once again why the Giants should have just re-signed Carlos Beltran (or not traded for him at all). In this whole saga, I give the front office poor marks for the lack of budgetary foresight when they made that trade combined with cheapness and lack of offensive-fortitude foresight during the offseason. Beltran just stroked his 24th dong-job of the season to put his OPS at .893. The Giants will likely have to pay Pence about $13 million next year, which (look at that!) is exactly what Beltran will make next year.
The fact is there's really no way to evaluate this trade at this time. Tommy Joseph is a good few years away from the majors, and we just don't know how good Pence will hit for the Giants. But with Posey and Hector Sanchez under team control, the Giants are probably set behind the dish for the foreseeable future. So using Joseph as a trade chip was probably the best use for him. In flipping him with Shierholtz, they get a proven star, who hopefully can light a fire and contribute heavily to a World Series run. As I've said before, the window is open now; best to take advantage of it while you can. The Giants are probably a little better right now, and probably a little worse for the future (a thin farm system did just get thinner).
I'm still hoping the Giants' biggest deadline pick-up will be a Tim Lincecum who is worth watching.
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