Giants 2013 Preview: Pitching

I covered how I think the Giants' offense will do in 2013 a few days ago. Today I'll do the same for the pitching staff. Just like the line-up, the make-up of the pitching staff looks almost identical to how it did back in October. Evidence indicates it worked out pretty well back then. Can they repeat their performance in 2013?

Matt Cain

2012 stats: 16-5, 2.79 ERA, 219.1 IP, 1.04 WHIP

Better or worse in 2013? about the same

Big Sugar vaulted himself to the status of unquestioned staff ace last year, but his numbers were not all that different from what they had been in the past. I don't see any reason why they'd stray significantly in the coming year. Matt Cain is Matt Cain. 

Madison Bumgarner

2012 stats: 16-11, 3.37 ERA, 208.1 IP, 1.11 WHIP

Better or worse in 2013? slightly better

Bumgarner kind of blew it down the stretch last year, and he watched his ERA go from 2.83 to 3.37 over his final seven starts. That final number doesn't look bad, but it's not all that impressive when you consider he pitched half his games at AT&T Park, which suppressed runs in a major way last year. Here's the good news: the dude is only 23. Most hot prospects are getting ready to have their first full season at his age. Bumgarner already has 15 scoreless World Series innings under his belt. Speaking of which, just like Brandon Belt, I'd say Bumgarner has the best chance to take "the leap" to a new level we haven't seen from him yet.

Tim Lincecum

2012 stats: 10-15, 5.18 ERA, 186 IP, 1.47 WHIP

Better or worse in 2013? better

Easily the biggest question mark on the entire staff. Big Time Timmy Jim was just about the Least Valuable Player in the league last year. Among those who qualified for the ERA title, he finished dead last. So the good news is it can't get worse. If he can manage even league average this year, it will be a significant improvement. He's got plenty of motivation, too. Ever since he came into the league, critics have cited his small size and complex mechanics as reason to suggest his early success was unsustainable. Another year resembling last year and they will have been proven right. Not only that, but he's a free agent after this season. In every one of his starts, there will be literally millions of future dollars at stake.

Barry Zito

2012 stats: 15-8, 4.15 ERA, 189.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP

Better or worse in 2013? about the same

2012 was billed as somewhat of a "redemption" year for Barry Zito, even though his ERA was identical to what is was in 2010, when he was left off the post-season roster. Somehow, last year he became the Giants' most reliable starter down the stretch, and then had a couple of career-defining moments in the playoffs. The fact is, Barry Zito is kind of like Matt Cain. Because Barry Zito is Barry Zito. Which makes him nothing like Matt Cain. He's kind of like Lincecum, in that Zito is in a contract year, but the most likely scenario we'll see is more of the same: some good starts, some bad starts, and some mediocre starts, all adding up to a passable fifth starter. Given how much attention his last contract got him, his next one will be absolutely fascinating to me.

Ryan Vogelsong

2012 stats: 14-9, 3.37 ERA, 184.1 IP, 1.39 WHIP

Better or worse in 2013? worse

Hey, Ryan Vogelsong, I think this is the year your Cinderella story comes to an end. Your 2011 All-Star appearance and 2012 playoff heroics? Flukes! That's what I say. And so does everybody else. If you were really this good, it would have shown up earlier in your career. There are plenty of stats out there that suggest you're about to fall off a cliff. What are you gonna do about it? I'm not buying it. You'll be back in Japan in no time. You suck and you'll never amount to anything. Prove me wrong.

Bullpen

2012 stats: 3.56 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Better or worse in 2013? slightly better

Affeldt, Lopez, Mijares, Kontos, Casilla, Romo. All of those guys are returning for 2013. The only new addition will fill the void left by Mota, and it looks like it will be Chad Gaudin. Nothing ground-breaking here. Those numbers from last year look pretty pedestrian -- I remember the bullpen being better. Perhaps that's because due to injury, some innings had to be taken up by some scrubs. Can't count on an injury-free season, but I like this group, so I'll give them the benefit. 

If you look closely at the pitching stats from last year, the Giants were actually not all that great. They were 5th in the NL in ERA, but 11th when accounting for ballpark effects. In looking at the above, I think the pitching staff, as a whole, will be marginally better, but not drastically so. And if AT&T plays a bit more like an average park, the raw numbers will look similar. 

So what have we learned? Both the line-up and the pitching staff are essentially the same as last year, and I'm predicting that they will perform at about the same level. Riveting stuff. I can't believe I'm not getting paid for this.

Giants 2013 Preview: Offense

One good thing about having a relatively boring offseason consisting of mostly just bringing back the guys from last year, is that it makes predicting the upcoming season a fairly simple exercise. In trying to figure out how the 2013 Giants will fare, the 2012 Giants provide a pretty good reference point. The Opening Day (only two weeks away!) roster will be the same as the 2012 World Series clinching roster, minus a Mota, a Theriot, a Huff, and a Nady. I'm not saying it's easy to accurately predict how the G-men will do, but the process is simple: look at each position, and decide if the personnel there will be better, worse, or about the same. So here's my stab at it, taking a look at the line-up first. The pitching staff will be handled in the near future. The following thoughts are not based on any fancy projection system, but rather gut instincts and an intermediate understanding of typical career progression:

Catcher
2012: Buster Posey (best player in the league)
Better or worse in 2013?: worse
He's an American hero, a swell guy, and a fine actor. He also hits baseballs extremely well. But to expect BP to replicate his MVP season is unreasonable. The safe bet is that he'll regress towards the mean at least a little. After the first two months, when he's hitting .310/.366/.465, we'll no doubt be subjected to articles and KNBR callers asking "what's wrong with Buster Posey?" But we shouldn't have to. We also shouldn't expect the same scorching second half he had last year, which vaulted him to the top of the MVP ballot.

1st Base
2012: Brandon Belt (.275/.360/.421, 7 HR, 56 RBI)
Better or worse in 2013?: better
Buried beneath the organization's and the media's expectation that Belt would be the second coming of Will Clark was actually a pretty decent season. That slash line above translated to an OPS+ of 124 (100 is average, Posey's was 172). Still, Belt represents this line-up's best chance at significant improvement over last year. After a smoking hot June (OPS of .963) and a miserable July (.480), his August and September were solid (.887 and .881, respectively). If he can sustain his late-season form and avoid those stretches where he looked completely lost at the plate, Belt will be a very nice run producer. Spring Training numbers don't mean anything unless they can be used to support a point I'm making, and Belt's numbers are a perfect example. He's torching the competition so far, so that's surely a sign of things to come.

2nd Base
2012: Pu pu platter, Marco Scutaro (as a group: .288/.327/.343)
Better or worse in 2013?: about the same
Second base was a black hole before Scutaro arrived wearing a cape and underwear outside of his pants. However, there's no better candidate for regression than Scutaro. In 61 regular season games with the Giants, Scutaro hit an other-worldly .362/.385/.473. He followed that with post-season moments out the wazoo, and the Giants rewarded him with a 3-year deal for his age 37-39 seasons. Scutaro's offensive outburst was vastly aided by his .366 BABIP (69 points higher than his career mark), and he's old, so don't expect the hit parade to continue. Still, he puts the ball in play more often than almost anyone, and having an average hitter for a whole season will probably produce about the same as the second base merry-go-round did last year.

3rd Base
2012: Pablo Sandoval (.283/.342/.447 in 108 games)
Better or worse in 2013?: slightly better
If Sandoval can simply stay on the field, that should yield more production from the 3rd base position. Thankfully, he's out of hamate bones to fracture, so hopefully he'll have a full season. His weight will always be a mild concern, especially since he's now a World Series MVP, and you can't exactly threaten him with a trip to the minors if the doesn't shape up (as the Giants did back in the Spring of 2011). But if he's healthy in every sense of the word, he's capable of putting up MVP numbers. It would be silly to count on that, but also foolish to assume he'll repeat his woeful 2010 season.

Short Stop
2012: Brandon Crawford (.248/.304/.349)
Better or worse in 2013?: slightly better
Crawford's 2012 ended up pretty solid, considering that I was hoping for a .230 BA at the outset of the season. Also encouraging is the fact that his second half was significantly better than his first half. He'll never be more than a role player, but he can continue to improve, and enter 2013 with a lot of confidence. He belongs.

Left Field
2012: Melky Cabrera, Gregor Blanco, trace amounts of others
Better or worse in 2013?: worse
Melky is the forgotten contributor of 2012. At the time of his suspension, he was a fringe MVP candidate, and without him, the Giants would have had a much tougher time winning the NL West. After he left, Scutaro took the reigns as leader of the hit parade, but as covered above, that probably ain't happening again. The lack of Melky Cabrera is the largest reason why the 2013 Giants may struggle offensively (as compared to 2012). A platoon between Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres is the plan for LF as we approach the start of the season. If both of them produce the same platoon splits as they have throughout their career, that will be perfectly satisfying (still nowhere close to Melky, but acceptable nonetheless). However neither of them is having a good Spring, Torres is already battling bumps and bruises, and they're each a year older. Did you know Torres is 35?!? Look at LF as the spot most likely headed for a trade deadline upgrade.

Center Field
2012: Angel Pagan (.288/.348/.440, 29 steals)
Better or worse in 2013?: worse
Pagan was in a contract year last season, so of course he had a really solid campaign. Now after being handsomely rewarded with a 4-year/$40M contract, will he keep it up? I don't see Pagan as the type of guy to sit back and rest on his laurels, but I do think we can expect at least a slight dip in production. It's just the nature of things.

Right Field
2012: Nate Shierholtz, Gregor Blanco, Hunter Pence
Better or worse in 2013?: better
Let's just say it: Pence played like shit for the Giants last year. He made some wonderful pre-game speeches in the playoffs, and had some timely hits, but overall, his play was unacceptable. So he really can't play much worse without getting benched. And looking at his career numbers, he should bounce back. He's well-liked, and won't have the pressure that comes with being a mid-season major aquisition. That should free him up mentally. Don't expect an All-Star appearance, though.

Overall, where does that leave the Giants? By my calculations, which are completely arbitrary, I don't see a significant change in offensive production either way. The runs/RBIs will be distributed a little differently, but I think the offense will roughly stay the same. Which puts the team in a familiar spot. Hover around league average scoring prowess, and lean on the pitching staff to deliver.

Buster Posey: Is There Anything He Can't Do?

Buster Posey is the man. I know I'm not breaking any news with that statement, but sometimes it bears repeating. For instance, when he shows the world yet another reason why he is, in fact, the man. In addition to his considerable baseball skills, we now know he can act as well. He had been in some commercials a few months ago during the time when fans were voting for who should be on the cover of the PlayStation game, "MLB '13: The Show". On a scale of 1-to-funny, those mostly clocked in around "meh." Obvi, the writers are to blame, and that's why Posey didn't win said fan vote. But in a new commercial released by PlayStation yesterday, Posey shows us he was using those duds to hone his acting chops. Here, he delivers with Peyton-Manning-esque timing, while staying true to those dashing good looks:

Acting.

World Baseball Classic 2013: We Don't Care, Others Do

World Baseball Classic games began last Friday, with Chinese Taipei beating Australia, 4-1. Few American baseball fans knew about this, and even fewer cared. As an advocate for all things baseball, my reaction to The WBC's lack lack of coverage has mostly been frustration and bewilderment. Until I realized that I don't care about it, either. Set in the middle of Spring Training, the WBC is a tournament that lacks identity, though it is not without purpose. As a showcase for international baseball fans, the WBC is doing fine and has room to grow.

Simply put, people around these parts don't care about the Classic because they already care too much about the World Series. A Major League Championship for our favorite baseball teams has a corner on the market for our baseball-related emotions. Until the WBC makes gains in its market share, America's best players will hesitate to participate; and until those stars are eagerly signing up, the WBC will struggle to pull on America's heart strings. It's all very chicken-or-the-egg-y. Somehow basketball has pulled it off with the Olympics. I'm not sure how.

Fans of Major League Baseball want their team to win a World Series. That's the first priority, and for most, the only priority. So when the Giants send seven of their players to go play in an exhibition tournament in the middle of their Spring Training, I'm not thrilled about it. Front offices are not excited, either. The players risk extending themselves too far too soon, and sustaining a season-altering injury as a result. Given that the Major League baseball season is so long, there's really not a good time for this tournament to be held.

But the international scene is where the WBC becomes relevant. It may never win the hearts of Americans, but not every country is spoiled with the world's most elite baseball league. Major League Baseball is the standard against which all other international baseball will be measured. The World Baseball Classic gives international fans a way to see how their guys compare. In fact, I think it might be more interesting if no MLBers were allowed at all. Everyone just sends their best who have yet to be deemed ready for The Show. The WBC would be relegated to a sort of world-wide scouting combine niche, but it would be interesting to see how the countries stacked up on that even playing field.

Either way, though, the WBC should focus on its role of being an international showcase (which it already does for the most part). The baseball-related emotional marketplace is not tapped out for non-American baseball fans, and if I may, a brief anecdote to support that point: I attended a few games of the inaugural WBC in Anaheim in 2006. My dad and I arrived a bit late to our first game, and upon hearing multiple raucous cheers as we were walking up to the stadium, we assumed we were missing a ton of excitement. On the contrary, the score was 0-0 when we arrived at our seats. Turns out fans were simply cheering every hit like a home run, and every out like it was the last one of the game.

And let's not forget that it is good baseball. The 2009 World Baseball Classic Title Game was a thriller, with two current and prominent Major Leaguers (Ichiro Suzuki and Yu Darvish) playing principle roles. And if America keeps losing, maybe at some point the USA will attempt to send an actual All-Star team.

Until then, the most important things for MLB fans will be the Spring Training opportunities created for scrubs by the vacancies left by Major Leaguers heading to the Classic. Case in point: Brock Bond! Marco Scutaro is playing for Venezuela, so with plenty of playing time available, the race for the Giants' 25th-man/utility-player is heating up! Left Coast Lean favorite Brock Bond has been playing well, and has upgraded his status from "outsider's puncher's longshot" to "longshot".  What a man.