Giants 2013 Preview: Offense

One good thing about having a relatively boring offseason consisting of mostly just bringing back the guys from last year, is that it makes predicting the upcoming season a fairly simple exercise. In trying to figure out how the 2013 Giants will fare, the 2012 Giants provide a pretty good reference point. The Opening Day (only two weeks away!) roster will be the same as the 2012 World Series clinching roster, minus a Mota, a Theriot, a Huff, and a Nady. I'm not saying it's easy to accurately predict how the G-men will do, but the process is simple: look at each position, and decide if the personnel there will be better, worse, or about the same. So here's my stab at it, taking a look at the line-up first. The pitching staff will be handled in the near future. The following thoughts are not based on any fancy projection system, but rather gut instincts and an intermediate understanding of typical career progression:

Catcher
2012: Buster Posey (best player in the league)
Better or worse in 2013?: worse
He's an American hero, a swell guy, and a fine actor. He also hits baseballs extremely well. But to expect BP to replicate his MVP season is unreasonable. The safe bet is that he'll regress towards the mean at least a little. After the first two months, when he's hitting .310/.366/.465, we'll no doubt be subjected to articles and KNBR callers asking "what's wrong with Buster Posey?" But we shouldn't have to. We also shouldn't expect the same scorching second half he had last year, which vaulted him to the top of the MVP ballot.

1st Base
2012: Brandon Belt (.275/.360/.421, 7 HR, 56 RBI)
Better or worse in 2013?: better
Buried beneath the organization's and the media's expectation that Belt would be the second coming of Will Clark was actually a pretty decent season. That slash line above translated to an OPS+ of 124 (100 is average, Posey's was 172). Still, Belt represents this line-up's best chance at significant improvement over last year. After a smoking hot June (OPS of .963) and a miserable July (.480), his August and September were solid (.887 and .881, respectively). If he can sustain his late-season form and avoid those stretches where he looked completely lost at the plate, Belt will be a very nice run producer. Spring Training numbers don't mean anything unless they can be used to support a point I'm making, and Belt's numbers are a perfect example. He's torching the competition so far, so that's surely a sign of things to come.

2nd Base
2012: Pu pu platter, Marco Scutaro (as a group: .288/.327/.343)
Better or worse in 2013?: about the same
Second base was a black hole before Scutaro arrived wearing a cape and underwear outside of his pants. However, there's no better candidate for regression than Scutaro. In 61 regular season games with the Giants, Scutaro hit an other-worldly .362/.385/.473. He followed that with post-season moments out the wazoo, and the Giants rewarded him with a 3-year deal for his age 37-39 seasons. Scutaro's offensive outburst was vastly aided by his .366 BABIP (69 points higher than his career mark), and he's old, so don't expect the hit parade to continue. Still, he puts the ball in play more often than almost anyone, and having an average hitter for a whole season will probably produce about the same as the second base merry-go-round did last year.

3rd Base
2012: Pablo Sandoval (.283/.342/.447 in 108 games)
Better or worse in 2013?: slightly better
If Sandoval can simply stay on the field, that should yield more production from the 3rd base position. Thankfully, he's out of hamate bones to fracture, so hopefully he'll have a full season. His weight will always be a mild concern, especially since he's now a World Series MVP, and you can't exactly threaten him with a trip to the minors if the doesn't shape up (as the Giants did back in the Spring of 2011). But if he's healthy in every sense of the word, he's capable of putting up MVP numbers. It would be silly to count on that, but also foolish to assume he'll repeat his woeful 2010 season.

Short Stop
2012: Brandon Crawford (.248/.304/.349)
Better or worse in 2013?: slightly better
Crawford's 2012 ended up pretty solid, considering that I was hoping for a .230 BA at the outset of the season. Also encouraging is the fact that his second half was significantly better than his first half. He'll never be more than a role player, but he can continue to improve, and enter 2013 with a lot of confidence. He belongs.

Left Field
2012: Melky Cabrera, Gregor Blanco, trace amounts of others
Better or worse in 2013?: worse
Melky is the forgotten contributor of 2012. At the time of his suspension, he was a fringe MVP candidate, and without him, the Giants would have had a much tougher time winning the NL West. After he left, Scutaro took the reigns as leader of the hit parade, but as covered above, that probably ain't happening again. The lack of Melky Cabrera is the largest reason why the 2013 Giants may struggle offensively (as compared to 2012). A platoon between Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres is the plan for LF as we approach the start of the season. If both of them produce the same platoon splits as they have throughout their career, that will be perfectly satisfying (still nowhere close to Melky, but acceptable nonetheless). However neither of them is having a good Spring, Torres is already battling bumps and bruises, and they're each a year older. Did you know Torres is 35?!? Look at LF as the spot most likely headed for a trade deadline upgrade.

Center Field
2012: Angel Pagan (.288/.348/.440, 29 steals)
Better or worse in 2013?: worse
Pagan was in a contract year last season, so of course he had a really solid campaign. Now after being handsomely rewarded with a 4-year/$40M contract, will he keep it up? I don't see Pagan as the type of guy to sit back and rest on his laurels, but I do think we can expect at least a slight dip in production. It's just the nature of things.

Right Field
2012: Nate Shierholtz, Gregor Blanco, Hunter Pence
Better or worse in 2013?: better
Let's just say it: Pence played like shit for the Giants last year. He made some wonderful pre-game speeches in the playoffs, and had some timely hits, but overall, his play was unacceptable. So he really can't play much worse without getting benched. And looking at his career numbers, he should bounce back. He's well-liked, and won't have the pressure that comes with being a mid-season major aquisition. That should free him up mentally. Don't expect an All-Star appearance, though.

Overall, where does that leave the Giants? By my calculations, which are completely arbitrary, I don't see a significant change in offensive production either way. The runs/RBIs will be distributed a little differently, but I think the offense will roughly stay the same. Which puts the team in a familiar spot. Hover around league average scoring prowess, and lean on the pitching staff to deliver.