Warriors get the monkey off their back in Phoenix

"I'm a Warriors and I'll always be a Warriors!"

It had been over seven years since the Dubs won a road game against the Suns.  After being up almost 20 points during the game, Monta Ellis had to hit a tie breaking fade away winner with one second on the clock to make history for the Bay Area franchise.  Here's a game recap from the guys at SFGATE.

Once again, Monta Ellis is having a very good season, currently the sixth best scorer in the league, but will not be apart of this year's All Star game.  In the past he has had better years and still been snubbed but this year the guy is getting screwed again.  I understand that the West is stacked with great guards (Kobe, Paul, and Westbrook) that deserve to get the start over Monta, but you're telling me Tony Parker and Steve Nash are better than Monta (Shooting guard or point guard, doesn't make a different in this case).  Nash can slide because he's getting old and can still produce at a high level on a mediocre team.  On the other hand, Monta is better than Parker in almost every scoring category and is the leader of his team.

One of these years Monta will be an All Star and it will be a good site to see.  In the mean time, get some rest Monta and company and get ready for a second half run! #NBAALLSTAR #WINNING #WARRIORS

We Believe!
Check out the game winner!

-Mr. A

Why the Giants Might Not Win the NL West

To counterbalance the if-things-go-right tone of yesterday's post, I feel like there's a few things that should be mentioned. Giants fans should be optimistic about the upcoming season, but that optimism should be qualified with the word "cautious". The G's are still a team with a minuscule margin for error, both in individual games, and in the larger trends of a full season. If they improve in the ways I suggested they would yesterday, they'll be fine. But those improvements are not guarantees. There are plenty of things that make me as uncomfortable as when you are on a flight and they make you return your seatback to its upright position:

• In our heads, we're all penciling in Posey to revert back to his 2010 form. But even though this will be the 4th Major League season he's appeared in, he still could suffer from sophomore-like struggles. Last year he was more than a solid player (OPS+ of 115), but he wasn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball when he went down (he was slugging .389 as compared to .505 in 2010). Unless Belt breaks out, Sandoval will likely be the only other threat to consistently cause major damage with the bat. 
• Speaking of penciling in production, can Ryan Vogelsong continue his miracle story? The news today that he'll miss about 10 days of workouts due to a back strain doesn't really worry me, but objectively speaking, a repeat performance seems very unlikely. As long as he keeps painting those corners, he'll continue to be a huge contributor, but don't expect him to lead the team in ERA again.
• Is Brian Wilson fully fixed? The Giants bullpen showed they can handle themselves when he's not available, but they're definitely a more complete team when he's firing on all cylinders.
• The Giants gave up rotation depth when they traded Jonathan Sanchez. In return they got potentially excellent offense in Melky Cabrerea, but given that he's coming off his best season by far, he's still an unknown quantity. 
• Let's be honest - Freddy Sanchez is made of yogurt. The last time he played more than 140 games was 2008. "A full season of Freddy Sanchez" is not something to be counted on.

When you play in so many low-scoring, close games, as the Giants have and will continue to do, it doesn't take much to turn a 95-win season into an 85-win season. This is why the stagnant offseason left so many fans frustrated. The Giants will be competitive for certain, but there's a good amount that has to go right for them to make the playoffs. Another impact bat, like the Cardinals' new right fielder, would have increased that margin for when some things inevitably go wrong.  

Once the roster is set, things are largely out of the control of the front office. The 2010 and 2011 Giants are perfect examples of how differently those things can break. I'd be a lot more comfortable if the front office had put together a roster with a little more cushion. 

Why the Giants Will Win The NL West

When the Superbowl ended, I was away from my computer, and my portable-computing-device-that-also-makes-phone-calls was out of batteries, so I couldn't post to the facebook. But my mental status update was "Baseball baseball baseball now we get to talk about baseball. Also, baseball." Unfortunately, selfish jerks* like Peyton Manning and Jeremy Lin had to hog the spotlight for the next couple weeks. But now it is definitely time to bust out your Big League Chew, because pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training today! Hooray!

As compared to the gloriously short offseason in 2010-2011, this last one seemed entirely too long. And it was made worse by the Giants' "addition by subtracting Beltran but adding Cabrera and Pagan" strategy. But enough negativity. It's the first day of Spring (training). Flowers are blooming, love is in the air, all that good stuff. The SFG's are back in our lives, and I believe they still will be in our lives after the regular season ends. Here's why:

The easiest way to do this is to compare this year's team to last year's. Actually, that doesn't help. In terms of personel, the teams are not very different, and they finished 8 games out of first place last year. So rather than compare teams, let's compare the 2011 season against the if-things-go-right season of 2012. The 2011 Giants were borderline horrendous (or more accurately, horrendous) at catcher (Whiteside and Steward), short stop (Tejada, Crawford), first base (Huff), centerfield (Torres, Rowand), and left field (Ross, Belt, post-Beltran-trade Shierholtz). That's A LOT of room to improve. And except for short stop, there's every reason to believe there will be significant improvements. Competition at first base between Huff, Belt, and Pill will drive the 1B numbers up. The two new outfielders will make the offense more dynamic, and if Melky Cabrera can approach his numbers from last year, he'll be adored. Moreover, if any of the three outfielders aren't performing, Belt can get shuffled in there (he might even win a spot outright if he has a good enough Spring). Finally, and most importantly, Posey Posey Posey.

I'm predicting Huff to split the difference of this numbers from 2010 and 2011. Anything less than that, and the Brandon Belt Era should be ushered in without hesitation. I'm imagining Cabrera spraying doubles all over the field, and maybe Shierholtz can figure it out for a full season. And who knows, maybe Crawford can hit a consitent .230 while keeping up his stellar defense. Plus there's the platoon option with the addition of Ryan Theriot. I hesitate to mention a full season of Freddy Sanchez as one path to improvement because he's made of glass, but hey, I mentioned it. And lets not forget that Pablo Sandoval and Brian Wilson missed significant time last year.

The point is this: the 2011 season was mired by injury and boring Bruce Bochy press conferences. We're definitely stuck with the latter, but it's perfectly reasonable to expect more luck in regards to the former. Posey will be the key, though. They need him to repeat his 2010 rookie of the year campaign, not just for production but for moral as well. Another thing that should help moral: last year, the Giants hit horribly with runners in scoring position, and even worse when there were 2 outs. It's no guarantee, but they should score a lot more runs in those situations just by the law of averages.

As for the pitching, there's likely going to be some regression towards the mean, at least from Ryan Voglesong and the historically good bullpen. But this will still be one of the top staffs in the league, and with an improved offense, they won't have to shoulder as much of the load. And how's this for a bold prediction: Madison Bumgarner will be your 2012 NL Cy Young Award winner.

Will all this be enough to dethrone the Arizona D-bags? Even in winning 94 games last year, they left room for improvement, and I'm sure there's arguments to be made they have an even better team this year. But, my counterpoint to that is they are stupid and I don't like them, so I say it was a fluke. Book it.

Giants fans, start saving your money for playoff tickets.



*as far as I know, they're not actually selfish jerks, but it did fit in with the sentence.

Lin-sanity still in the news... Fake Bill James predicts Lin's rise to stardom!

Check this guy out, Ed Weiland is a left coast Fed-Ex delivery guy in Bend, Or.  Just like Bill James, the guy who changed the way baseball stats are looked at, Ed follows the sport of basketball and keeps stats on NCAA and NBA players.  Long story short, this guy predicted the rise of Lin-sanity!  Pretty cool story, check it out at the link above or here.


-Mr. A

Seriously Stop the Lin-sanity!!!

Every channel I turn to has this guy's face on it!  I understand that he is doing well but there is plenty of other action going on around the county for this to be the only highlight on all night.  Lin's rise to stardom  has more to do with the fact he is an Asian male then people think.  Just go look at the other games that happened last night or the past few nights.  There has been a number of young players that no one knows about that have lite up the night with great games and big numbers yet Lin's every step is all over the front page.  The media has played a big role in this, but I don't want to take anything away from anyone's success.  That being said he's been given an opportunity and has taken full advantage of it.  When you are surrounded by the likes of Stoudemire, Melo, Chandler, and Fields you are set up to have a good chance at success.

Also to all the Bay Area media writers, stop asking why isn't Jeremy Lin a Warrior still?  He was one of two or three guards riding the bench behind Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry.  What do you think the fans and media would have said if Mark Jackson were to start Lin instead of Curry?  I rest my case.

Anyway, tough lose for the dubs tonight!  Where the hell was Monta in the final couple minutes?  It's game time for the dubs now.  They are on the road for eight or the next nine games.  Can they get to.500 (currently 11-15)?  We will wait and see.  In the meantime, go ahead and skip the ESPN channel because we all know what they are talking about.  Come back here for some real sports talk.

Peace,

Mr. A

Heartbreak at the 'Stick

What a shame. The NFC Championship game played out just like so many other games that the 49ers had won this season: win the battle of field position, ride a stellar defensive performance, and scratch out just enough points on the offensive end. And that formula paved the way to a lead in the 4th quarter with possession. And yet victory slipped away. Still, if the '9ers had came away with the W yesterday, you get the feeling that Giants fans would have been doing even more head scratching; asking themselves "how did this happen?" After all, the Giants did look like the better football team.

Eli Manning outplayed Alex Smith, and by a wide margin. Aside from the two big Vernon Davis plays, the 49ers did close to bubkiss on offense. Wide receiving was exposed as a major weakness for the Red&Gold, whereas it was shown off as an asset for the Giants -- Victor Cruz absolutely torched the '9ers in the first half. Although credit the '9er defense and coaching staff for righting that ship in the second half (Cruz had just 2 receptions after the break). [Side note: I think that a major metric for how NFL coaches are evaluated should be their team's 2nd half performance as compared to the 1st half. Halftime is where the most significant strategic adjustments are made in the chess match against the other coach. The 49ers have made major 2nd half improvements all year, which is one of the reasons I love Harbaugh.]

But just as turnovers did so much for this 49er team all season, turnovers are what did them in on Sunday. Or maybe you could say that Ted Ginn Jr.'s injury did them in. Kyle Williams looked lost out there on punt returns all day. He once signaled for a fair catch when no one was near him. He caught one punt by flat-out diving for it--a risky move with little upside. And of course he was the principal goat on the two plays that defined the game. And the Giants took advantage.

Any unlikely playoff run (such as the one the Giants are on now) requires a lot to go right. The team needs to get their breaks, and the Giants certainly cashed in a few yesterday. Most obvious is the Brooks-Conrad-esque performance by Kyle Williams. But there was also the Ahmad Bradshaw fumble-that-wasn't, after he was ruled down (unreviewably) by forward progress. There were 4 instances where a 49er DB had a great shot at an interception. Unfortunately, those 4 instances occurred over 2 plays, and each time the two DBs crashed into each other, canceling out each other's shot at the ball. On another day the 49ers may have won the turnover battle, and in turn the game.

'Twas still an incredible season. No one could have expected them to get as far as they did. I'm taking comfort in the fact that there's no reason they shouldn't be able to do it again next year. On the negative side, no one will be surprised by the 49ers next year. But they should be able to apply the same formula. Combine that with incremental improvements in Alex Smith and others, and they should be fine.

Championship stone cold locks!!!

Waking up on this day of football and the anticipation is greater than ever.   As a lifelong Niner fan, I have bee through the ups and downs over the years.

The Niners have a chance to go to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1997.  Back then, we were still in the upper echelon of the league with Young at QB and Mariucci at the helm.  Since then we would only reach the playoffs three times in the next 13 years.  What a journey is has been.  I feel lucky to have been a part of this journey, especially now that it is on the upswing again as we come into today one win away from the big show.

Today is going to be a day to remember at the stick!  The house is going to be shaking and the Giants are not going to be ready for the beat down that is about to ensue.  As history shows, the Niners have had a tough time getting through this game.  In the span from their first Super Bowl win to their fifth in 11 years, the Niners lost four NFC championship games.  That being said, today the tides will turn in our favor.  The story line is just too good.  Harbaugh's first season has been one for the record books!  The combination of the Smith brothers and this unbelievable defense is going to get it done.

Stone Cold Lock:










49ers -3

Final Score:
49ers: 30
Giants: 20



As for their opponent in two weeks.....

You can get into this game and talk about all the different players and play makers, but really it comes down to one situation.  Can the Ravens defense stop the Gronk and Brady show?  No one really has been able to stop this combo and I don't see that changing at all.  It's going to be a big day for Gronk and Brady.  While T-Sizzal (Terrell Suggs) and the murderer (Ray Lewis) are trying to get to Brady, the rest of the team is going to be seeing the back of Gronk's jersey as he runs away from them for the score.  Once Gronk and Brady connect for the first two scores of the game, the Ravens are going to have to play catch up all game.

Stone Cold Lock:
















Over 52


Final Score:
Hatriots: 38
Ravens: 31

Indy here we come!  Brady against his childhood team!

See you at the Stick!

-Mr. A

Darron Thomas to enter the NFL draft!

I'm not going to dwell on the fact that we all saw the last game of one of the greatest QB's to put on a Duck uniform.  I want to thank DT for the run he has made with this team over the past two plus years and for bringing us a Rose Bowl victory.  DT is a really good athlete and I believe he has a good chance to at least get a shot to prove himself as an NFL player.

With that out of the way, everyone wants to know, who is going to fill the void of DT at the helm.  My first guess is that Bryan Bennett will get the initial push as the starter, but do not sleep on a great incoming freshman from Hawaii, Marcus Mariota.  This 6'5" 190 lb. stud has 4.4 40-yard dash speed and has been running the zone read option offense for his entire high school career.  My guess is that Marcus is going to light up the practice field and by the spring game this coming year, he will show that he is ready to lead this team.  Below is a good article with some background on Marcus.

http://www.duckstopshere.com/2011-articles/july/getting-to-know-the-2011-oregon-duck-newcomers-marcus-mariota.html

-Mr. A

30 years and five days later...

30 years and five days ago Montana led the 49ers down the field for a come back win against the Dallas Cowboys with a touchdown pass to Dwight Clark know as "the Catch".  Fast forward to today, starting QB Alex Smith LED  his team in a back and forth battle with a present day "catch" play to Vernon Davis to solidify the win against the high powered Saints.  Congrats to Alex, Vernon, and the rest of the 49ers.  Harbaugh has pulled this team from their grave and I am happy to have seen their success.  Can't wait for the Green Bay/New York game today.  Let's go Giants and I'll see you at the Stick next week!

This paints the best picture of the game last night for me!

NIIIINEEEEERS!!!!!!

Cheers,

Mr. A

P.s. If you want to see it again, here it is!

http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/01/14/relive-the-49ers-winning-drive/

From the slammer to the Rose Bowl defensive player of the game!

As if a 2010 DUI (suspended for the entire 2010 season) and then a season ending knee surgery wasn't enough for Kiko Alonso.  In May of this year, Alonso was arrested and booked on burglary charges.  Again, Alonso put his eligibility in Kelly's hands.  Like we all know, Kelly handles these situations with discipline but also with a plan.  Alonso was given a similar opportunity that Blount got after the Boise punch.  Again, the player in the spot light shined, worked his ass off, and made the best of a bad situation.  It not only made Kiko a better person, but also a better football player.  Kiko was named the defensive MVP of the Rose Bowl last night with a handful of great plays and one timely interception.. This was just a great example of how a young man can learn from his mistakes.  Kiko learned from the mistakes he made and made sure the past stayed behind him.  His positive actions spread through the locker room as he turned his life on and off the field right side up.  This should be a good lesson for all the young kids and young athletes out there.  If you screw up and are given a chance to redeem yourself, don't be greedy.  Use it as an opportunity to make yourself shine.

Here's a more in depth article about Alonso's story and the game last night.

Happy new year!

Go Ducks!  Great win last night!  What a send off for LMJ, you will be missed.  Good luck in the NFL and hopefully you get drafted by the Niners!

Cheers,

Mr. A

P.s. Hey Cliff Harris, you should have taken notes from this guy!