Thursday, September 29, 2011

So Who Do We Blame? - Part I

Alas, Giants fans such as myself have to wait at least a year to have another night like this. Now that we are greedy, title-hungry, entitled fans, we need to start tossing some blame around. Barry Shiller over at the Bleacher Report writes about some under-the-radar reasons for the Giants demise. I'll focus on the more obvious, and what it all means for the future.

First, rather than using 1000 words to describe the season, I can save some time and just show this:
"No additional qualifiers". Awesome. And the one guy who did qualify was quite possibly the Least Valuable Player in the National League. That pretty much sums it up.

Injuries are the easiest, most comforting reason why the Giants only won 86 games this year. By the end of the season, the line-ups being trotted out were so far off from the Opening Day plan, it's a wonder they even got 86 out of this year. Still, that is the easy way out. Take a look at the final standings. The Giants finished a full 8 games behind the D-backs. Would a healthy Posey, Sanchez, and Sandoval be able to make all of that up? Maybe. But every team has injuries, and while the Giants were hit harder than most, the reason they didn't make the playoffs is simply a lack of talent. The veterans didn't pull their weight, and the potential-replacement younger guys were too overmatched to do any actual replacing. Injuries aren't the only reason the Giants had "No additional qualifiers". Most of the lineup wasn't good enough to play every day, forcing Bochy to mix and match, spreading the at bats all over the roster. So that's what I'm going with for my #1 reason for the disappointing season: the lack of performance from several offensive players. I'm mad at Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, of course Miguel Tejada and Aaron Rowand, and even Brandon Belt a bit for not carpe-ing the diem (in his defense, the herky-jerky handling of him by Bochean was ill-advised).

And so, looking to next year, what should the plan be? Who on this carousel of mediocrity should they bring back? The good news is, that just by doing nothing and/or maintaining their roster, the offense should improve significantly. While perfect health should not be counted on, let's assume Posey comes back for the full year, Freddy Sanchez does not go down, and Pablo will miss less time. Aubrey Huff can't do any worse, plus he'll be in a contract year, so I expect to see improvement there. If Belt sews up the hole in his swing and takes less called third strikes, he should be a staple in the line-up. So the top priority should still be keeping the pitching staff in tact, which Sabean has stated it will be.

Should they try to bring Carlos Beltran back? I say yes, if it is not more than a two-year deal at a reasonable price. He's at risk of production decline and/or injury, but he did perform admirably when healthy for the Giants (although you could argue it was too little too late). But picture the #2 through #6 spots in the line-up looking something like Sanchez, Beltran, Posey, Sandoval, Belt. That's the makings of an average offense, right there, folks. And we know what happens when the Giants keep their pitching staff in tact and put together an average offense.

And how about the pipe dream of adding Jose Reyes? What if his bat lead off before those other guys? Now I'm salivating. In all likelihood, payroll will not allow for it, but boy is Reyes a perfect fit for this team. Short Stop and the lead-off spots are HUGE holes, and the Giants should be going after these dynamic, athletic-types that their ballpark is tailored for. Someone from the Giants should lead the league in triples every year. If Reyes came aboard, I have no doubt he would. That is, if he stayed healthy. But that just makes it better! He's an injury risk, which is right up Sabean's alley!

The Giants clawed through most of the season by winning tight, low-scoring games. Unfortunately, that's not a sustainable business model. The 1-run games started to even out. You could say their negative run-differential caught up to them (they scored 8 fewer runs than they allowed, which usually translates to a sub-.500 record). But I don't think it's quite as simple as regression to the mean. You could tell they just played much worse the final two months of the season. Giving away 90 feet on both sides of the ball. And completely going into the tank offensively. They sucked, and that's about all there is to it.

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