Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Giants Roughly-One-Tenth-of-the-Way-Through-the-Season Report

So, here we are at the all important 17-game mark. A time when judgements should not be made because the sample size is still much too small. And yet, judgements should be made, because who doesn't love judging? With slightly less than 90% of the season remaining, the Giants look kinda-sorta-good-but-not-great. They sit just over .500 at 9-8, but early returns show the plan of the offseason holding water. The Giants and their fans were pinning their hopes for this season on offensive improvement in the moderate to major range, with the pitching staff maintaining the status quo. How's it turning out? Let's have a look at the specifics, shall we?
  • The top-of-the-lineup additions of Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera
    • This one is going just about right. Pagan needs to get on base more, but he's trending in the right direction. After compiling just 3 hits in the first 7 games, he's got 13 in the last 10.  Melky looks like he started just where he left off in Kansas City. He's leading the team in walks (10) and steals (4), and with Jonathan Sanchez struggling in KC, the Giants look like the early winners in that trade.
  • Pablo Sandoval being Pablo Sandoval
    • Not surprisingly, he is the Giants' most consistently productive hitter. Difference is, he's got production in front of and behind him this year. He wasn't healthy all year last year, which probably cost the Giants a win or two. Stay hot, young Panda.
  • The return of Buster Posey
  • Improvement from the 1B position
    • Oy. Here's where it gets a little hairy. The idea was for Huff to at least split the difference of 2010 and 2011. Or, ideally, Belt would smash his way into playing every day. So far Huff looks about 3 parts 2011 and 1 part Aaron Rowand. He just kind of looks old doesn't he? The job is there for the taking for Brandon Belt, and he's pissing all over himself. Actually, that's a bit harsh. Give him some more consistent time. But I am a bit worried. What if he's just not as good as everyone expects him to be? What if he's just not good? His 2 RBI this year came on a 150-foot pop up that should have been caught.
  • The return of Freddy Sanchez
    • N/A, which sucks, because the Burriss/Theriot ticket isn't exactly inspiring the nation.
  • More production from Brandon Crawford
    • Wait and see. So far, it's not there, but he's been hitting into some hard outs. Lovely in the field when he's not making errors, so maybe cut down on those, kid.
  • Hitting with runners in scoring position
    • Law of averages says the team's production with RISP should improve greatly this year. But with Tuesday's 0-for-6, they're down to just .195 (last year it was at .219 - good for dead last in the Majors). However, so far they do have the 2nd most at bats with RISP in the NL (last year they were last in the NL in that category), and that's probably more meaningful in evaluating the offense at this stage. But when you take last year and the start to this year, it's possible that they just suck when the ducks are on the pond. If that's the case, this year will be excruciating.  
And now to the pitching, because an improved offense doesn't do a whole lot of good if you can't prevent runs on the other side:
  • Lincecum is a worry, but I think he'll figure it out. His first win last Sunday was a step in the right direction. That being said, the Giants won't be the team they want to be if he doesn't pitch like an ace, and he won't pitch like an ace until he recovers his command.
  • Madison Bumgarner has been stellar, although not the Cy Young Award winner I boldly predicted him to be. Still plenty of time for that to change.
  • Matt Cain is Matt Cain.
  • Ryan Vogelsong's storybook 2011 looks like it's not a fluke, which is hugely reassuring. Still plenty of time for that to change as well, though.
  • Barry Zito -- staff ace! Not really, but he's pitching good, and we all should probably just stop talking about it in case it causes him to revert back to his former self. Let's remember, through his first 6 starts in 2010, he was 5-0 with a 1.49 ERA. He finished up 2010 by not making the post-season roster.
  • Bullpen: Lost Brian Wilson, but the real Brian Wilson wasn't even around much for 2011, and they were just fine. Clay Hensley is doing a helluva job replacing Ramon Ramirez. They're not as dominant as they were last year, but they're getting the outs they need for the most part. Bruce Bochy has a luxury with all the reliable arms he has in the 'pen, and he's rewarded management for years now by conducting symphonies with the way he uses it.
Other things to mention:
  • If Hector Sanchez keeps hitting, he'll see more time, which will move Posey to first more often, which will move both Belt AND Huff to bench.
  • Nate Shierholtz has not been mentioned yet, even though he's been a revelation. However he's always a 1-for-15 away from losing his job again, so he's almost not worth talking about.
  • Defense. It's been atrocious. That's one more thing that will likely level off; I'm not worried that it will continue to cost them. The problem is it has already cost them. Every game counts. Even the ones where Aubrey Huff plays 2B (it's true -- I called the Commissioner's office to see if they could replay that one. No luck). 
So all that adds up to a record of 9-8, which seems about right for the way they've played. They've won every series since getting swept by Arizona to open the season, although they were boosted by two walk-off wins that were the direct result of errors on the opposition. You can't count on those to keep coming around, but hopefully they won't need to. Just stay healthy.



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