"Listen, here's the thing. If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker."
-Matt Damon in Rounders
Kind of makes you a bit weary heading into this post-season, right? I'm looking around this playoff field in the National League, and I'm not seeing any pushovers. What does that mean about the Giants? Sure, you could argue that they are playing their best ball of the season right now. Winning two out of every three games (or something like that) since Melky went down. But for the last month or so, they've been feasting on the weak competition in the NL West. Frankly, any playoff team should be winning two out of three. And with the starting rotation not having a great September, you can't just point to the Giants' pitching and say everything will be fine. They may be winning at a pretty incredible clip, but they're not playing their best baseball. Speaking of pitching, the Reds have Cueto, Arroyo, and Mat "Joffrey Lannister" Latos. The Nationals lost their best pitcher (by choice!) and still probably have the best rotation of anyone. I'll be rooting for the Cardinals to knock out the Braves, and the Nationals while they're at it, but then suddenly they've got the same magic they had going last year, and who would want to go up against that? It will be very interesting to see how the hitters respond to pitchers qualified to be in the Cy Young discussion, and managers who don't intentionally walk the hitter in front of Marco Scutaro (lol Don Mattingly).
Conclusion: The Giants are in trouble. Good news: So are the Reds. So is every other team still in this thing. 5-game series* are volatile beasts, where blown calls, errors, and Cody Ross can swing the outcome (lol 2010 Braves).
About the roster decisions coming: there aren't that many of them. The choice in the bullpen comes down to Mota, Kontos, or both. I'll trust Bochy in whatever he does. Last time he conducted an award winning symphony with his decision-making, so he's earned my trust here. For position players, there's Xavier Nady, Aubrey Huff, Aubrey Huff's pinch runner, and Eli Whiteside fighting for 2 spots (assuming the Giants bring both Mota and Kontos for a 12-man pitching staff). Huff has certainly earned a spot with his bat and his eye this past month, but the fact that he needs a designated runner diminishes his chances. Nady's right-handed bat does fit better against a heavily left-handed Reds bullpen. Taking Whiteside would allow them to use switch-hitting catcher Hector Sanchez off the bench without worrying about having to use an emergency catcher. So there are definitely a few combinations to consider. But ultimately, it probably won't matter. However they choose 'em, at some point in the series there will be a situation where you say "boy I wish they had chosen abc over xyz".
Really, it's Tim Lincecum who should be the odd man out. In 2010, the Giants only took 4 starters (because that's all you need), and left off Barry Zito. Lincecum's ERA is a full run higher than Zito's was. And yet, in all likelihood in Game 3 or 4, the Giants will hand the ball to their worst, most unreliable starter this year. After a walk, hit, and Joey Votto 3-run homer, he'll get yanked, but the damage will have been done. Vogelsong seems to be very much back on track, but because he's "better suited for the bullpen" than the other guys, he may be hanging out with relievers this month. If Lincecum does get a start, I say let him try to make it once through the order, and if he does, quit while your ahead before the inevitable blow-up. It's happened time and time again this year. To expect anything else would be silly. (Yes, while what I'm writing does make sense to me, it's also a far-fetched reverse jinx attempt to make Lincecum look like The Freak we used to know, in which case then go ahead and let him strike out 14 losers).
Prediction: Giants in 5
*Siri, what's the plural of "series"?
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