With the Packers man-handling the Vikings in the Wild Card Playoff round last Saturday, they will now travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers for a trip to the NFC Championship Game.
Oh. Baby.
The 49er Dynasty of the 1980's is a massive source of pride, but I was born too late to really enjoy it. Their rivalry with the Cowboys in the 1990's was great, and left me with a healthy hatred of "America's Team" that still hangs on today. But it was the rivalry with the Packers of the late '90's that took hold of me in the most emotional way, and gave me my favorite football memory of all time. The media began its shameful love affair with Brett Favre during this time, taking away attention from the much-deserving Steve Young, who had turned in the greatest SuperBowl performance of all time in 1994. But in 3 straight seasons, the Pack ousted the 49ers from the playoffs. It was, as they say, on. So to get that monkey off their backs in 1999 with The Catch II ("OWENS! OWENS! OWENS!"), well that was just peachy.
The Packers got the 49ers again in 2002 to go up 4-1 in playoff meetings, so there is some work to do to turn the tables. They can start this Saturday, as a new chapter in this history book will be written. And the '9ers already showed they can beat their rivals when they handily upset the Packers in Week 1, in Green Bay. Packers fans no doubt have some excuse as to why that game went the way it did, and the 49ers are banged up, so it will be no easy task. They are at home this time, and they also have a different quarterback, which apparently is an important position.
By now I think we can agree that Kaepernick is a (probably minor) upgrade over Alex Smith, right? He lacks experience, which could turn out to be huge, but it will be tough to measure. What we can know is that he can throw the ball faster and farther, and he's more mobile (although people do seem to be forgetting that Smith could run the ball, too). Anyway, my point is, I think we know pretty much what we are getting from most of this 49er team. From my limited football knowledge, I'd say there are two 49ers on which the game will hinge: Justin Smith and David Akers.
It was never a secret that Aldon Smith relied heavily on Justin Smith while he was piling up the sacks this year. But since Justin went down with a torn tricep tendon, Aldon hasn't added to his sack total once. More frightening is that it's easy to tell the defense as a whole has suffered. Through the first 13.5 games this year, the '9ers gave up an average 3.3 points per quarter (that's counting the two overtimes against St. Louis and the first half of the Pats game). Since Halftime of that Pats game (roughly when Smith went out), the 49ers have allowed an average of 8.6 points per quarter. (That's not as good). It looks like Smith will play this weekend, but there's no way to tell how effective he will be. The 49ers will need to get consistent pressure on Aaron Rogers to stop that high-powered offense. I'm not sure they can do it with 50% of Justin Smith.
Meanwhile, David Akers has gone from one of the best in the game to one of the worst. Hopefully he'll continue doing his best Tim Lincecum impression and have a complete revival in the playoffs. The 49er formula of grinding out wins with stingy defense, conservative offense, and winning the field position battle doesn't really work without a lock-down field-goal kicker. That's yet another reason why Kaepernick may be the better choice. Still, probably my favorite moment of this regular season was Akers's 63-yarder against the Packers. Seems like he's a completely different person now. Harbaugh even brought in another kicker to practice this week to compete with Akers.
So there's uncertainty. Surprise Surprise. I'm just glad there's reason to truly dislike the Packers again. Ever since Favre left, (and since the 49ers have been mostly bad), I haven't had a problem with them. Aaron Rogers has been so unbelievably good, it's hard to hate him aside from his stupid touchdown celebration. Well as soon as he throws his first on Saturday, it is, as they say, on.
Monday, January 7, 2013
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Assessing the Giants' Offseason So Far
The Giants are getting the band back together. Brian Sabean and the rest of the gang had a busy day at the Winter Meetings yesterday, signing Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro to reprise their roles from the 2012 season. This comes a few weeks after Jeremy Affeldt re-signed as well. In bringing back these three important contributors to the World Series-winning team, the Giants check off the boxes on their off-season wish (needs) list, although they now have little room to do much else. The cynics will moan about how they haven't learned their lesson from the Aubrey Huff debacle -- you shouldn't overpay to bring back aging veterans just for sentimental reasons. And there's plenty of reason to be concerned. All three of these guys got more money and more years than we would have liked. But that doesn't change the fact that these were the best options at their respective positions. The talent pool in the Giants' minor league system isn't exactly overflowing. And given how the market was playing out, these terms were probably necessary. The Giants are built to win now, so if they have to Aaron Rowand these guys a couple years down the road, well, so be it. The Giants won 2 World Series during the Aaron Rowand era, and he wasn't even on the team for one of them. It can be done.
Pagan signed for 4 years and $40 million. The obvious concern is that much of Pagan's value lies in his legs: stealing bases, beating out infield singles, ranging in center field, setting franchise records for triples, etc. Legs don't usually age particularly well. Pagan's 2012 was fantastic -- 4 Wins Above Replacement. He's unlikely to repeat that, just because...well just because. So if he starts rapidly declining, years 3 and 4 of this contract could easily be a sunk cost. On the other hand, analysts like to claim these days that 1 Win Above Replacement "costs" about $5 million (and rising) on the open market. By that measure, to make this contract "worth it", Pagan simply needs to be a 2-Win player on average. That seems more than doable. But the main reason I'm happy to see Pagan back is the other options out there. In other words, he's not Shane Victorino, whom the Red Sox just overpaid because he has a fun nickname and he's a "star". Puke. The Giants have their core set with Posey, Sandoval, and the starting pitching. Making a huge splash with Michael Bourne or Josh Hamilton would have had the same age concerns and would have put more strain on the club when negotiating with their young hitters. The lack of production from Gary Brown in the minors this year definitely hurt, as he was sort of the plan for 2013. But now that he's not a viable option to start in the Majors, Pagan was really the only acceptable option.
Pretty similar situation with Scutaro, who signed for 3 years, $20 million. It's too much, but it also is how much the market dictated for the best option at 2nd base. Maybe they could have cobbled together an acceptable season from some combination of Joaquin Arias, Ryan Theriot, and even Freddy Sanchez. But that doesn't sound like a plan suitable for a team trying to cement a dynasty. Scutaro probably has one or two more productive years in him, and he's not blocking a prospect who is ready to play in the Big Leagues, either (like Aubrey Huff was).
The Jeremy Affeldt signing is the most puzzling. Three years at $6M apiece seems out of this world for a middle reliever/set-up man. And it would be, except unfortunately, we exist in a world in which the Dodgers also exist. It's horrifying on multiple levels. Specifically on this front, though. Since the Dodgers wipe themselves with thousand-dollar bills, they had no problem throwing 3 years and $22.5 million at Brandon League, a guy with a similar role to Affeldt. I believe that this contract was offered specifically to set the market high on Affeldt, maybe even to price the Giants out so they could lure him away themselves. At the very least, they succeeded in making the Giants overpay for Affeldt. Must be nice, Ned Colletti.
So it looks the 2012 Giants will be essentially the same as the 2013 team. I've got no beef with that. Of course that includes Gregor Blanco starting in LF, which is not ideal (really the Giants needed 2 outfielders, which makes the Pagan deal even more necessary). The fact that Scutaro and Affeldt may have priced the Giants out of a platoon option in left is probably the largest reason not to like the deals. That and the fact that the Giants are usually pretty good at grabbing effective relievers out of the bargain bin (Casilla, Lopez, Mijares, etc).
Speaking of effective relievers, let's talk about the elephant in the room: Brian Wilson. It's looking increasingly like he won't return, after the Giants decided to not tender him a contract in arbitration. Upset that the Giants did not want to pay around double his market value, there's talk of B Weez taking his beard-growing talents to LA, where he lives in the off-season. Again, this would be horrifying. But let's look at the upside. He may not be ready for Opening Day and he may not be fully effective all year. He's coming off his second Tommy John surgery. There's a real chance he'll Jason Schmidt the Dodgers and become one of the best Giants ever. Aside from Dodger-fail reasons, from a baseball perspective, the risk/reward just doesn't seem worth it. When Wilson went down last year, it wasn't the closer position that suffered (remember, Casilla was a marked improvement before he faltered, at which point the committee--led by Romo--did just fine). The biggest loss for the bullpen was its depth. Below average guys had to take some of the middle innings, and they didn't fare too well. But with Mijares added, I think there's enough. Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Mijares, and Kontos make up a bullpen that most teams would lust for (Without Guillermo Mota uglying them up, they are a handsome group, no?). Bringing Wilson back comes with the possibility that he just might not be that effective, and with that comes a closer controversy, and it won't be one of those "good problems to have" like they have going on over at Candlestick. For the price Wilson probably wants, it's just not worth the risk.
Pagan signed for 4 years and $40 million. The obvious concern is that much of Pagan's value lies in his legs: stealing bases, beating out infield singles, ranging in center field, setting franchise records for triples, etc. Legs don't usually age particularly well. Pagan's 2012 was fantastic -- 4 Wins Above Replacement. He's unlikely to repeat that, just because...well just because. So if he starts rapidly declining, years 3 and 4 of this contract could easily be a sunk cost. On the other hand, analysts like to claim these days that 1 Win Above Replacement "costs" about $5 million (and rising) on the open market. By that measure, to make this contract "worth it", Pagan simply needs to be a 2-Win player on average. That seems more than doable. But the main reason I'm happy to see Pagan back is the other options out there. In other words, he's not Shane Victorino, whom the Red Sox just overpaid because he has a fun nickname and he's a "star". Puke. The Giants have their core set with Posey, Sandoval, and the starting pitching. Making a huge splash with Michael Bourne or Josh Hamilton would have had the same age concerns and would have put more strain on the club when negotiating with their young hitters. The lack of production from Gary Brown in the minors this year definitely hurt, as he was sort of the plan for 2013. But now that he's not a viable option to start in the Majors, Pagan was really the only acceptable option.
Pretty similar situation with Scutaro, who signed for 3 years, $20 million. It's too much, but it also is how much the market dictated for the best option at 2nd base. Maybe they could have cobbled together an acceptable season from some combination of Joaquin Arias, Ryan Theriot, and even Freddy Sanchez. But that doesn't sound like a plan suitable for a team trying to cement a dynasty. Scutaro probably has one or two more productive years in him, and he's not blocking a prospect who is ready to play in the Big Leagues, either (like Aubrey Huff was).
The Jeremy Affeldt signing is the most puzzling. Three years at $6M apiece seems out of this world for a middle reliever/set-up man. And it would be, except unfortunately, we exist in a world in which the Dodgers also exist. It's horrifying on multiple levels. Specifically on this front, though. Since the Dodgers wipe themselves with thousand-dollar bills, they had no problem throwing 3 years and $22.5 million at Brandon League, a guy with a similar role to Affeldt. I believe that this contract was offered specifically to set the market high on Affeldt, maybe even to price the Giants out so they could lure him away themselves. At the very least, they succeeded in making the Giants overpay for Affeldt. Must be nice, Ned Colletti.
So it looks the 2012 Giants will be essentially the same as the 2013 team. I've got no beef with that. Of course that includes Gregor Blanco starting in LF, which is not ideal (really the Giants needed 2 outfielders, which makes the Pagan deal even more necessary). The fact that Scutaro and Affeldt may have priced the Giants out of a platoon option in left is probably the largest reason not to like the deals. That and the fact that the Giants are usually pretty good at grabbing effective relievers out of the bargain bin (Casilla, Lopez, Mijares, etc).
Speaking of effective relievers, let's talk about the elephant in the room: Brian Wilson. It's looking increasingly like he won't return, after the Giants decided to not tender him a contract in arbitration. Upset that the Giants did not want to pay around double his market value, there's talk of B Weez taking his beard-growing talents to LA, where he lives in the off-season. Again, this would be horrifying. But let's look at the upside. He may not be ready for Opening Day and he may not be fully effective all year. He's coming off his second Tommy John surgery. There's a real chance he'll Jason Schmidt the Dodgers and become one of the best Giants ever. Aside from Dodger-fail reasons, from a baseball perspective, the risk/reward just doesn't seem worth it. When Wilson went down last year, it wasn't the closer position that suffered (remember, Casilla was a marked improvement before he faltered, at which point the committee--led by Romo--did just fine). The biggest loss for the bullpen was its depth. Below average guys had to take some of the middle innings, and they didn't fare too well. But with Mijares added, I think there's enough. Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Mijares, and Kontos make up a bullpen that most teams would lust for (Without Guillermo Mota uglying them up, they are a handsome group, no?). Bringing Wilson back comes with the possibility that he just might not be that effective, and with that comes a closer controversy, and it won't be one of those "good problems to have" like they have going on over at Candlestick. For the price Wilson probably wants, it's just not worth the risk.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
KAP or Smith?
Read more here
Personally, I am 100% on Smith side. All the guy did was QB the team to a 6-2 record and post quality numbers across the board. He get's hurt for a game and half and get demoted to an somewhat unproven 2nd year player? Doesn't add up to me. Maybe it's Harbs ego and personality getting in the way here. Or maybe it's something that not even the media has hit on yet.....
Was there a QB controversy behind closed doors before Smith got injured? I know KAP and a number of other unproven young guys were killing it in the early i the year in practice. Either way, no matter what a player should have to fail in on the field to lose there job. Well, unless your Jamarcus Russell!
What do you leaner's out there think?
Cheers,
Mr. A
LaMichael ready to show the NFL what he's all about!
Can't wait to see what LMJ and even Jenkins can do if they get activated this Sunday. Looks and sounds like LMJ has the better shot to get out there!
"In my mind, I feel like I can go out there and play any day," James said. "I feel like I can make plays against anybody. That's the competitive nature in me, but it's probably different from the coaches, I don't know."
If you think you're the best, you will be the best. Can't wait to see KAP and LMJ breaking the Rams ankles all over the field on Sunday!
Cheers,
Mr.A
#whosgotitbetterthanus #LMJ #49ers #kaepernick
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Chip Kelly to the NFL... The question isn't if, but when!
With the NFL being a "what have you done for me lately" league these days, it's never surprising to see any coach get fired mid-season or in the off-season. As a Duck fan, Chip Kelly seems to always be in the news about a rumor he is leaving Eugene for the pros. Here's the latest list of potential teams he could go to.
Read More....
My gut tells me he is done with the Ducks after they crush Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl this coming January (more to come on that after the championship games over the next two weekends).
The most likely suitor has got to be the Carolina Panthers. With Coach Rivera talking about not coming back, Kelly could step in and run his flash offense with Newton and the stable of running backs currently on the squad right now not to mention they will be getting a super early draft pick since they suck this year.
Back from the dead,
Mr. A
#camnewton #bbigballschip #WTD #carolinapanthers #NFL
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
2010 Giants vs. 2012 Giants: Who Wins?
The Giants won the World Series. Just a coupla weeks ago. It happened. You can look it up. They also won it in 2010. Fact. Also, fact: when a team wins two titles so close together, it's inevitable that people will begin to compare the teams. Emotionally, I don't think you can top 2010. The joy combined with (quite frankly) relief made for a sense of "everything is going to be okay". In 2012, at least for me, it still seemed a bit like we were playing with house money. I just don't think anything can top the first one. That's why my parents love my older brother more than me, and that's why everybody says losing their virginity is still the best sex they've ever had*.
But what if we take emotion out of it? Amid all the recent election fury, one question that I can't seem to get out of my head is this: which of the two recent World Series winning Giant teams is better, 2010 or 2012? It's a difficult question to answer, given that the two teams have a lot (literally) in common, but also differences that cannot be ignored. Also mucking up the waters is the fact that the 2012 Giants had a bit of an identity change during their playoff run to the World Series, not to mention the 2010 line-up was so mix-and-match it changed almost every night. So while we're comparing two teams, we're really looking at three or more teams, even while all teams share a lot of players. Let's try to hash it out anyway.
Lineups/Bench:
2010 2012
Andres Torres CF Angel Pagan CF
Freddy Sanchez 2B Marco Scuraro 2B
Aubrey Huff 1B Pablo Sandoval 3B
Buster Posey C Buster Posey C
Cody Ross RF Hunter Pence RF
Pat Burrell LF Brandon Belt 1B
Juan Uribe 3B Gregor Blanco LF
Edgar Renteria SS Brandon Crawford SS
Pablo Sandoval Ryan Theriot
Aaron Rowand Juaquin Arias
Nate Shierholtz Xavier Nady
Mike Fontenot Hector Sanchez
Travis Ishikawa Aubrey Huff
Eli Whiteside
Like I said, this is far from an exact science, as the names above don't paint nearly a complete picture. Cody Ross was barely a factor in the 2010 regular season, yet he gets a spot there. Melky Cabrera paid a pivitol role in getting the 2012 Giants to the playoffs, but he's not mentioned. Basically the entire 2010 line-up was shuffled on a daily basis. But by the final end to the season, these are the line-ups that were generally settled upon. Niether of the benches are anything to write home about so I'll call that a wash. For the regulars, we have to decide what kind of sample size to look at. I'm not going to assume that Renteria duplicates his MVP performance on the regular. Nor can I hold the 2012 line-up to their post-season production, which other than Sadoval, Scutaro's NLCS, and two amazing HRs from Posey, was pretty poor. As great as Torres was that year, Pagan was better this year. MVP Posey is better than ROY Posey. Huff edges out Belt, and because you can't say that Scutaro would hit .362 for a whole year, 2nd base is essentially a wash. The remaining guys are close as well, but top to bottom, you'd have to take the 2012 guys. Numbers will back that up.
EDGE: 2012
Rotation:
2010 2012
Tim Lincecum Matt Cain
Matt Cain Madison Bumgarner
Jonathan Sanchez Ryan Vogelsong
Madison Bumgarner Barry Zito
Barry Zito (sort of) Tim Lincecum (sort of)
Starting with Barry Zito's season-saving start in St. Louis, the 2012 rotation looked just as un-hittable as the 2010 guys. But that may have been their best stretch of the season. The 2010 guys did it all year, waiting for the offense to approach average. They only had 2 bad starts the entire post-season, both by Sanchez against the Phillies. Meanwhile the 2012 staff was bailed out by their offense down the stretch. Lincecum, when starting, was worse than any Barry Zito we've seen.
EDGE: 2010
Bullpen:
2010 2012
Jeremy Affeldt Jeremy Affeldt
Santiago Casilla Santiago Casilla
Javier Lopez Javier Lopez
Guillermo Mota Guillermo Mota
Ramon Ramirez George Kontos
Sergio Romo Sergio Romo
Brian Wilson Jose Mijares
Tim Lincecum (sort of)
These are both excellent bullpens. A wonderful security blanket for both teams, probably because they're so similar. Kontos replaces Ramirez, Brain Wilson gets hurt so everyone moves up a spot, and Mijares fills in behind. Tim Lincecum is the wild card here. Can we even count him in the 'pen? If so, can we expect him to be the atomic weapon he was throughout the playoffs? It's hard to remember, but if you look at the regular season numbers, the 2012 'pen struggled a bit. Still, this has got stay-away written all over it.
SLIGHT EDGE: 2010
Defense:
The 2012 Giants were lauded for their solid defense throughout the playoffs. But it's not like the 2010 team embarrassed themselves, aided of course by defensive replacements Ishikawa and Shierholtz. Gotta give the edge to Torres over Pagan, but Blanco heavily over Burrell. It's the short stop position that tips the scale, though.
EDGE: 2012
Coaching:
Are these exactly identical? It would be hilarious and awesome to see Bochy try to out-manage himself.
EDGE: EVEN
Intangibles:
2010 had their castoffs and misfits, riding magic particles to deliver rapture via torture. 2012 never said die, playing for each other to reach one common goal: win today. It's hard to argue against winning 6 elimination games. But the 2010ers did seem like more of a team of destiny to me. Again, maybe because that victory was slightly more emotionally satisfying. Or maybe it's because they beat heavy favorites in both the NLCS and WS. We're all winners, here.
EDGE: EVEN
Conclusion:
This is basically impossible to call. Can someone invent a time machine so we can actually play this out? But I know I didn't write nearly 1000 words just to bail on my own quesiton. So here's my thought: Over a 162-game season, the 2012 Giants would prevail over their 2010 counterparts. They'd feast on the inferior competition, while 2010's razor-thin margin of error would cost them a division title. But in a 7-game series, I'd take the 2010 Giants. The pitching would just be too much (remember what they did to Texas?), and they might be able to push just enough runs across, likely via the home run.
The real question is, who would you root for?
*No one has ever said this, but I'm trying to make a point, here. Also: my parents called to tell me they love me just as much as Broseph.
But what if we take emotion out of it? Amid all the recent election fury, one question that I can't seem to get out of my head is this: which of the two recent World Series winning Giant teams is better, 2010 or 2012? It's a difficult question to answer, given that the two teams have a lot (literally) in common, but also differences that cannot be ignored. Also mucking up the waters is the fact that the 2012 Giants had a bit of an identity change during their playoff run to the World Series, not to mention the 2010 line-up was so mix-and-match it changed almost every night. So while we're comparing two teams, we're really looking at three or more teams, even while all teams share a lot of players. Let's try to hash it out anyway.
Lineups/Bench:
2010 2012
Andres Torres CF Angel Pagan CF
Freddy Sanchez 2B Marco Scuraro 2B
Aubrey Huff 1B Pablo Sandoval 3B
Buster Posey C Buster Posey C
Cody Ross RF Hunter Pence RF
Pat Burrell LF Brandon Belt 1B
Juan Uribe 3B Gregor Blanco LF
Edgar Renteria SS Brandon Crawford SS
Pablo Sandoval Ryan Theriot
Aaron Rowand Juaquin Arias
Nate Shierholtz Xavier Nady
Mike Fontenot Hector Sanchez
Travis Ishikawa Aubrey Huff
Eli Whiteside
Like I said, this is far from an exact science, as the names above don't paint nearly a complete picture. Cody Ross was barely a factor in the 2010 regular season, yet he gets a spot there. Melky Cabrera paid a pivitol role in getting the 2012 Giants to the playoffs, but he's not mentioned. Basically the entire 2010 line-up was shuffled on a daily basis. But by the final end to the season, these are the line-ups that were generally settled upon. Niether of the benches are anything to write home about so I'll call that a wash. For the regulars, we have to decide what kind of sample size to look at. I'm not going to assume that Renteria duplicates his MVP performance on the regular. Nor can I hold the 2012 line-up to their post-season production, which other than Sadoval, Scutaro's NLCS, and two amazing HRs from Posey, was pretty poor. As great as Torres was that year, Pagan was better this year. MVP Posey is better than ROY Posey. Huff edges out Belt, and because you can't say that Scutaro would hit .362 for a whole year, 2nd base is essentially a wash. The remaining guys are close as well, but top to bottom, you'd have to take the 2012 guys. Numbers will back that up.
EDGE: 2012
Rotation:
2010 2012
Tim Lincecum Matt Cain
Matt Cain Madison Bumgarner
Jonathan Sanchez Ryan Vogelsong
Madison Bumgarner Barry Zito
Barry Zito (sort of) Tim Lincecum (sort of)
Starting with Barry Zito's season-saving start in St. Louis, the 2012 rotation looked just as un-hittable as the 2010 guys. But that may have been their best stretch of the season. The 2010 guys did it all year, waiting for the offense to approach average. They only had 2 bad starts the entire post-season, both by Sanchez against the Phillies. Meanwhile the 2012 staff was bailed out by their offense down the stretch. Lincecum, when starting, was worse than any Barry Zito we've seen.
EDGE: 2010
Bullpen:
2010 2012
Jeremy Affeldt Jeremy Affeldt
Santiago Casilla Santiago Casilla
Javier Lopez Javier Lopez
Guillermo Mota Guillermo Mota
Ramon Ramirez George Kontos
Sergio Romo Sergio Romo
Brian Wilson Jose Mijares
Tim Lincecum (sort of)
These are both excellent bullpens. A wonderful security blanket for both teams, probably because they're so similar. Kontos replaces Ramirez, Brain Wilson gets hurt so everyone moves up a spot, and Mijares fills in behind. Tim Lincecum is the wild card here. Can we even count him in the 'pen? If so, can we expect him to be the atomic weapon he was throughout the playoffs? It's hard to remember, but if you look at the regular season numbers, the 2012 'pen struggled a bit. Still, this has got stay-away written all over it.
SLIGHT EDGE: 2010
Defense:
The 2012 Giants were lauded for their solid defense throughout the playoffs. But it's not like the 2010 team embarrassed themselves, aided of course by defensive replacements Ishikawa and Shierholtz. Gotta give the edge to Torres over Pagan, but Blanco heavily over Burrell. It's the short stop position that tips the scale, though.
EDGE: 2012
Coaching:
Are these exactly identical? It would be hilarious and awesome to see Bochy try to out-manage himself.
EDGE: EVEN
Intangibles:
2010 had their castoffs and misfits, riding magic particles to deliver rapture via torture. 2012 never said die, playing for each other to reach one common goal: win today. It's hard to argue against winning 6 elimination games. But the 2010ers did seem like more of a team of destiny to me. Again, maybe because that victory was slightly more emotionally satisfying. Or maybe it's because they beat heavy favorites in both the NLCS and WS. We're all winners, here.
EDGE: EVEN
Conclusion:
This is basically impossible to call. Can someone invent a time machine so we can actually play this out? But I know I didn't write nearly 1000 words just to bail on my own quesiton. So here's my thought: Over a 162-game season, the 2012 Giants would prevail over their 2010 counterparts. They'd feast on the inferior competition, while 2010's razor-thin margin of error would cost them a division title. But in a 7-game series, I'd take the 2010 Giants. The pitching would just be too much (remember what they did to Texas?), and they might be able to push just enough runs across, likely via the home run.
The real question is, who would you root for?
*No one has ever said this, but I'm trying to make a point, here. Also: my parents called to tell me they love me just as much as Broseph.
Monday, October 29, 2012
In Appreciation of Various Giants
The Giants sure did pick the right time for their first 7-game winning streak of the year. The pitching staff morphed into 2010 form, Bruce Bochy out-managed his counterpart, and they rode timely hitting and impecable defense to their second title in three years. In a year in which the Giants struggled so much to complete series sweeps, they swept the Tigers to bring the trophy is back where it belongs. In between LOLing at all the "experts" and framing another SF Chronicle newspaper, let's take some time to appreciate some individuals that made up this wonderful team. Comment for the guys I don't list below.
- Tim Lincecum. (in my best Jeff Daniels voice): Just when I thought he couldn't get any worse, he goes and does something like this...and TOTALLY REDEEMS HIMSELF!! Wow was he awesome out of the bullpen. His gaudy numbers (13 innings, 3 hits, 1 run in relief) don't even tell the whole story. He was a weapon that allowed Bochy to save his other front-line relievers for other high-leverage situations. If you look at the 2010 and 2012 World Series, he might be the MVP of the two combined.
- Marco Scutaro. How fitting it was that he provided the kill shot -- a two-out hit for the game-winning RBI. Interestingly, had there been less than two outs, there's no way Theriot scores on that hit.
- Brandon Crawford. He's not my favorite Giant, but he's definitely in my top 5. And that is no small accomplishment for a guy who hit .248 in the regular season. But he uses Eminem and Drake songs as his walk-up music, and he's an absolute joy to watch in the field. He won't win a Gold Glove this year, but his performance on the playoffs national stage will get him the attention he needs for next year. He just kept making one incredible play after another. And they all seemed to come with runners on base. Or late in the game when Giants fans were counting the remaining outs. Or right before Miguel Cabrera was coming up. Or all of the above. If I wasn't already a devoted Romosexual, there's a good chance I would let Crawford do bad things to me.
- Matt Cain. Because Matt Cain.
- Buster Posey. Sometime around 9 months before March 27, 1987, Gerald and Traci Posey got in the mood, and now San Francisco Giants fans get to enjoy the fruits of their labor. This was Posey's first full Major League season. And already he's a 2-time World Champion, a Rookie of the Year, and in a few weeks, an MVP. Not a bad resume. He was injured in 2011, so basically this is a 3-peat.
- Jeremy Affeldt. His 2012 post-season: 10.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 10 SO. Enough said.
- Ryan Vogelsong. If Disney made the Ryan Vogelsong Story, and nobody knew it was based on actual events, it would be criticized as being unrealistic and too cheesy. It's completely bonkers what he's done. From injuries, to Japan, to being release multiple times, to being the best pitcher in the playoffs for a World Series winning team. I don't think I'll ever be able to fully grasp it. Loved the way Grant Brisbee described his Game 3 outing: "everyone would have understood if Voglesong pantomimed pushing an invisible wheelbarrow on the way back to the dugout. The better to carry his … well, you get the idea. How else would you expect him to get around with those things? Seems uncomfortable." Speaking of stones...
- Sergio Romo. You could probably fit two Sergio's into one Miguel Cabrera. Did that stop Romo from challenging the game's most feared hitter with a fastball to get the final strike of the World Series? Not a chance. I almost felt bad for the Tigers when he was in there. Because that fastball really showcased the awesome power of his slider. Certainly the Tigers had heard about the slider coming into the series. But it must be a whole different thing to actually see it. Poor guys never had a chance. Makes you wonder if he had a plan to throw that fastball all along. As in the entire season of throwing that slider so often was just one big (and effective) long con, all to set up the fastball for the final strike and make frozen pizza out of that last hitter. Stones. Here's a nice analysis of that final pitch.
- Barry Zito. A few years into Zito's tenure with the Giants, I asked my friend Jake what he would say to Zito if he ran into him at a bar. Jake nailed it, and it didn't even take him long to come up with his response: "Buy me a beer." I've always said that the day Barry Zito comes off the payroll, I'm throwing a party. I don't think I will anymore. And now I'd want to buy Barry a beer. He's finally given the nation something other than his contract to remember him by with the two most important starts of his career. He saved the season against the Cardinals, and then beat the unbeatable Justin Verlander in WS Game 1. Buster Posey is the MVP of the league. The Giants had 3 starting pitchers this year who were more valuable than Zito. But I think you could argue that the 2012 season for the Giants kind of belongs to Zito. In his first start of the year, when the Giants were 0-3, he righted the ship with a shutout in Colorado. Down the stretch of the regular season, he became the Giants' most reliable starter. And then he has the two signature outings in the playoffs. No one deserves their WS Ring more than him. You gotta hand it to him -- Barry Zito was shown a lot of disrespect over the past 6 years, and showed none in return.
- Brian Sabean. Once again, making all the right moves this year along with the preceding offseason. Shipping Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez (who had terrible years this year) to get Angel Pagan. Win. Getting Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez (who's career may be over). Bigtime win. Giving Gregor Blanco a shot. Picking up Jose Mijares off the waiver wire. And most importantly, heisting Scutaro from the Rockies. WIN.
- Bruce Bochy. Hall of Fame manager. San Francisco hero forever.
- Dave Righetti and Mark Gardner. Unquestionably, these guys are the two most underrated people in the organization. I'm even underrating them now by grouping them together, but I don't know how exactly they split up their duties/roles, so I'd just be saying the same thing about both of them. The pitching staff has been nails for 4 years now, and they don't get nearly enough credit. And in this post-season in particular, they fixed Madison Bumgarner, possibly Tim Lincecum, and prepared Barry Zito mentally to go out and pitch the games of his life. It's impossible to quantify their contribution. But I think it's a safe bet that the Giants would not have won two out of the last three titles without these guys.
See you all at the parade.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
The Giants Win the Pennant. The Giants Win the Pennant.
Which means they go to the World Series. It opens up Wednesday night at AT&T Park. Exciting stuff. Before getting to my thoughts on the World Series match-up, let me make a few quick notes about the NLCS (which the Giants won. I know because I was there (no big deal)). Here's what we learned last night and today while reveling in the awesomeness that comes with a Pennant:
- The Giants are an NL powerhouse. You don't go to the World Series twice in three years without being discussed as one of the elite franchises in the game. Even if the Giants don't win another game this year, they'll be nationally recognized as a force to be reckoned with. After the failures of 2011, I was worried 2010 would be looked at as a fluke. Not anymore.
- The Giants also proved they can make an extended post-season run without a gimmicky video going viral. Fans have been just as excited. Nice work. Internet: you get poor marks for failing to produce such a video this year. Ashkon in 2010 was an instant classic, and I miss something similar this time around.
- Not missing this year was again some poor play by an opposing infielder. Cardinal shortstop Pete Kozma did us a few solids in the 3rd inning, first by dodging Hunter Pence's line drive, allowing a potential double play ball into the outfield, and then later by throwing home on a B-Craw chopper when he had no chance to get an out. Upon further analysis, his misplay on Pence's "tripple-double" (as Andy Baggarly brilliantly dubbed it) is probably defensible, since the ball was re-directed by Pence's bat after initial contact. Nonetheless--in addition to Scutaro in the rain--it allows for another comparison to The Shawshank Redemption:
- Finally, we learned that photos and slow-motion videos of celebratory players and fans are way cooler if pouring rain is involved.
Alas, after a night and a day to celebrate, there is one more task at hand. I really don't know too much about the Tigers, but I do know that most of the pundits will likely pick them to win the Series*. Similarly to 2010, when they cited Cliff Lee + High Powered Offense, writers will substitute in Justin Verlander. It's not an illogical viewpoint, but many will cite Verlander with an attitude of "why even play this series when we know how it will turn out?" That's what they said in 2010, and the Giants beat Cliff Lee twice. Verlander, too, is not unbeatable. Hitters on the Giants have already gotten to him once this year (All-Star Game). With that being said, he is the consensus best pitcher on the planet, and I guess I have to agree there. Which makes you wonder why the Tigers wouldn't try to get him 3 starts in this series if it goes to 7 games. They're going to stick with the 4-man rotation they've used throughout the playoffs, though, and I suppose they have their reasons (probably revolving around that 1.02 ERA their starters have posted so far in the playoffs). Still, as a Giants fan, I welcome the idea of less Verlander, and by that logic, it makes it a poor decision by the Tigers.
Going up against the best pitcher in the game is one, Barry Zito. My how far we've come. Barry Zito. Starting Game 1 of the World bleeping Series. If he can manage to beat Verlander even once in this series, does that make the contract worth it? No, probably not. Without Zito, the Giants would probably have a different (better and cheaper) starting pitcher with a better chance at beating Verlander. But it would be a good story. Speaking of stories, I'm reading a lot about how Barry Zito has resurrected his career this year, and opening the World Series is the culmination of that. It's just not true. Barry Zito is no different than he was in 2010. The difference this year is that Tim Lincecum sucks. The Giants had 4 clearly better starting pitcher options in 2010. Not so this time around. Zito is capable of doing great things. Can he do it two starts in a row? It's gonna take a lot of #RallyZito tweets.
I think I like the decision to start Bumgarner in Game 2. Detroit (unlike St. Louis) is mediocre against lefties. Plus it keeps Timmy in the bullpen, where he has shined (I postulate that this is because he has no time to think about what he's doing when coming out of the 'pen). They say Bumgarner has fixed whatever was causing him trouble the past 6 weeks -- an all-time classic "believe it when I see it" statement, but hopefully Zito can go relatively deep in Game 1, and Bumgarner will have a leprechaun-short leash in Game 2. Bummer, though, that the Giants' best starters--Cain and Vogelsong--will take on the minority of the workload, only making 3 starts between them at most.
Final thoughts:
I wonder what kind of odds you can get for Scutaro as the MVP.
It would make things a whole lot easier if Posey and Pence would start producing.
Giants in 6.
*22 of 27 ESPN writers picked the Tigers
*22 of 27 ESPN writers picked the Tigers
Sunday, October 21, 2012
If NFL Analysts Were Talking About the NLCS...
Guy #1:
"When you talk about at guy like Ryan Vogelsong, you're talking about a fierce competitor. He leaves everything on the field, and his effort tonight was superb. This is a guy who has been through a lot in his career, but he's really come into his own. And when the ground attack from the San Francisco Giants can put points on the board, it allows him to throw the baseball with confidence, and it's really showing right now, fellas."
Guy #2:
"You know I totally agree, but you know I want to mention Barry Zito. I look at a guy like Barry Zito, and I see a guy who just get's (pause) the job (pause) done. He hasn't always done it with the flash you see a lot of these other guys do it with, but when his team needed it the most, he sure came through. This is a guy who has been through a lot in his career, and his experience and veteran leadership are really showing right now, fellas."
Guy #3:
"That's a great point. But one guy who we haven't talked a lot about is Buster Posey. The Cardinals have done a great job keeping him in check, saying 'we're not gonna let you beat us'. He hasn't gotten a lot of hits, and now I know he hasn't gotten a lot of pitches to hit. But this is Major (pause) League (pause) Baseball. At some point he's going to have to learn from his mistakes and start hitting the baseball. This is a guy who's been through a lot in his career, but fellas, I don't know: do we have the makings of a catcher-controversy in San Francisco?"
Guy #4:
"Oh no. Now come on don't be ridiculous. Buster Posey is the unquestioned leader of this team, and he's just going through the growing pains that come along with being a leader and an impact player in Major League Baseball. But you know, you can't talk about impact players without mentioning Marco (pause) Scutaro. Here's a guy who hits (pause) and hits, and here on your screen you see Holliday coming down the line and BOOM! He gets taken out, but you know what he does? He comes up his next at bat and punishes the opposition. This is a guy who's been through a lot in his career, and I'll tell you what fellas, in the playoffs in Major (pause) League (pause) Baseball, it often comes down to who (pause) wants it (pause) more. And I'll tell you what, Marco Scutaro looks like he's playing with a purpose right now. On both sides of the baseball."
Guy #1:
"Just a lot of big-time baseball players making big-time baseball plays. We'll send you back to the studio now. From San Francisco, we've got a Game 7 happening on Monday Night, folks. Tune in then."
"When you talk about at guy like Ryan Vogelsong, you're talking about a fierce competitor. He leaves everything on the field, and his effort tonight was superb. This is a guy who has been through a lot in his career, but he's really come into his own. And when the ground attack from the San Francisco Giants can put points on the board, it allows him to throw the baseball with confidence, and it's really showing right now, fellas."
Guy #2:
"You know I totally agree, but you know I want to mention Barry Zito. I look at a guy like Barry Zito, and I see a guy who just get's (pause) the job (pause) done. He hasn't always done it with the flash you see a lot of these other guys do it with, but when his team needed it the most, he sure came through. This is a guy who has been through a lot in his career, and his experience and veteran leadership are really showing right now, fellas."
Guy #3:
"That's a great point. But one guy who we haven't talked a lot about is Buster Posey. The Cardinals have done a great job keeping him in check, saying 'we're not gonna let you beat us'. He hasn't gotten a lot of hits, and now I know he hasn't gotten a lot of pitches to hit. But this is Major (pause) League (pause) Baseball. At some point he's going to have to learn from his mistakes and start hitting the baseball. This is a guy who's been through a lot in his career, but fellas, I don't know: do we have the makings of a catcher-controversy in San Francisco?"
Guy #4:
"Oh no. Now come on don't be ridiculous. Buster Posey is the unquestioned leader of this team, and he's just going through the growing pains that come along with being a leader and an impact player in Major League Baseball. But you know, you can't talk about impact players without mentioning Marco (pause) Scutaro. Here's a guy who hits (pause) and hits, and here on your screen you see Holliday coming down the line and BOOM! He gets taken out, but you know what he does? He comes up his next at bat and punishes the opposition. This is a guy who's been through a lot in his career, and I'll tell you what fellas, in the playoffs in Major (pause) League (pause) Baseball, it often comes down to who (pause) wants it (pause) more. And I'll tell you what, Marco Scutaro looks like he's playing with a purpose right now. On both sides of the baseball."
Guy #1:
"Just a lot of big-time baseball players making big-time baseball plays. We'll send you back to the studio now. From San Francisco, we've got a Game 7 happening on Monday Night, folks. Tune in then."
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Hey, Here's an Idea...
The Giants lost NLCS Game 3 to the Cardinals 3-1. They now are behind in the series 2-1. One narrative to describe last night's rain-soaked game is a familiar one: Matt Cain pitched amazing (a-Cain-zing?), but the offense couldn't push more than 1 run across, so he took the loss. Miraculously, this narrative has been pretty absent this year. So this game can serve as a reminder of how bad things used to be. You used to be this frustrated on the regular. It was like clockwork for much of 2008-2011. Of course, this was an NLCS playoff game, so your frustration should be multiplied by infinity, and looking for silver linings is pointless when their season is two losses away from being over. That's probably the more rational point of view.
Speaking of rational thoughts, the Cardinals have made it clear that they are not really pitching to Buster Posey in this series (see this article by Ray Ratto, who lays things out nicely). Considering the guy who hits behind Posey looks like the kid who bats last on his Little League team, it's a sound strategy. (Seriously, do you think the other Giants in the dugout--like the mean but competent kids in Little League--are encouraging Hunter Pence (or Under Pants*, as they probably call him) to lean over the plate to get hit, or to reach back when he swings to get catcher interference? Because right now a hit or a walk seems out of the question).
The Giants scored 1 run in Game 3, and had one good inning (produced by the bottom half of the order) in Game 1. Safe to say the Giants' offense has sputtered a bit in this series. That's in large part due to a lack of production from the middle of the order. And that's in large part due to how the Cardinals are pitching Posey. So how do you protect Posey? Allow me to propose this for line-up card:
Pagan
Posey
Scutaro
Sandoval
Rest of Line-up**
Yes, it's a complete panic move. After all, the Giants were good enough to have a million baserunners last night. They just spread them out over 7 innings, rather than bunch them together. (Sh)It happens. But instead of "panic move", why not call it a "counter-strategy"? The Cardinals aren't pitching to Posey. It's working. This would at least make them think, right? Plus, you're (nearly) maximizing your best hitter's chances for more total plate appearances.
Or we could just keep waiting for Pence to drive in his first run of the post-season because "he's our guy" and somehow "he's got a knack fro driving in runs" even though he possesses no knack at all for getting hits.
Your thoughts?
*Thanks for that one, Dad.
**I'm not sure what I'd do with the bottom half of the order. I'm not sure it matters. Maybe Sanchez will be in and Belt will be out. Maybe move Blanco or Crawford up, because they've been mixing in good at bats. The point of this is to try and get more production from the top/middle of the line-up.
Speaking of rational thoughts, the Cardinals have made it clear that they are not really pitching to Buster Posey in this series (see this article by Ray Ratto, who lays things out nicely). Considering the guy who hits behind Posey looks like the kid who bats last on his Little League team, it's a sound strategy. (Seriously, do you think the other Giants in the dugout--like the mean but competent kids in Little League--are encouraging Hunter Pence (or Under Pants*, as they probably call him) to lean over the plate to get hit, or to reach back when he swings to get catcher interference? Because right now a hit or a walk seems out of the question).
The Giants scored 1 run in Game 3, and had one good inning (produced by the bottom half of the order) in Game 1. Safe to say the Giants' offense has sputtered a bit in this series. That's in large part due to a lack of production from the middle of the order. And that's in large part due to how the Cardinals are pitching Posey. So how do you protect Posey? Allow me to propose this for line-up card:
Pagan
Posey
Scutaro
Sandoval
Rest of Line-up**
Yes, it's a complete panic move. After all, the Giants were good enough to have a million baserunners last night. They just spread them out over 7 innings, rather than bunch them together. (Sh)It happens. But instead of "panic move", why not call it a "counter-strategy"? The Cardinals aren't pitching to Posey. It's working. This would at least make them think, right? Plus, you're (nearly) maximizing your best hitter's chances for more total plate appearances.
Or we could just keep waiting for Pence to drive in his first run of the post-season because "he's our guy" and somehow "he's got a knack fro driving in runs" even though he possesses no knack at all for getting hits.
Your thoughts?
*Thanks for that one, Dad.
**I'm not sure what I'd do with the bottom half of the order. I'm not sure it matters. Maybe Sanchez will be in and Belt will be out. Maybe move Blanco or Crawford up, because they've been mixing in good at bats. The point of this is to try and get more production from the top/middle of the line-up.
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