Matt Cain
2012 stats: 16-5, 2.79 ERA, 219.1 IP, 1.04 WHIP
Better or worse in 2013? about the same
Big Sugar vaulted himself to the status of unquestioned staff ace last year, but his numbers were not all that different from what they had been in the past. I don't see any reason why they'd stray significantly in the coming year. Matt Cain is Matt Cain.
Madison Bumgarner
2012 stats: 16-11, 3.37 ERA, 208.1 IP, 1.11 WHIP
Better or worse in 2013? slightly better
Bumgarner kind of blew it down the stretch last year, and he watched his ERA go from 2.83 to 3.37 over his final seven starts. That final number doesn't look bad, but it's not all that impressive when you consider he pitched half his games at AT&T Park, which suppressed runs in a major way last year. Here's the good news: the dude is only 23. Most hot prospects are getting ready to have their first full season at his age. Bumgarner already has 15 scoreless World Series innings under his belt. Speaking of which, just like Brandon Belt, I'd say Bumgarner has the best chance to take "the leap" to a new level we haven't seen from him yet.
Tim Lincecum
2012 stats: 10-15, 5.18 ERA, 186 IP, 1.47 WHIP
Better or worse in 2013? better
Easily the biggest question mark on the entire staff. Big Time Timmy Jim was just about the Least Valuable Player in the league last year. Among those who qualified for the ERA title, he finished dead last. So the good news is it can't get worse. If he can manage even league average this year, it will be a significant improvement. He's got plenty of motivation, too. Ever since he came into the league, critics have cited his small size and complex mechanics as reason to suggest his early success was unsustainable. Another year resembling last year and they will have been proven right. Not only that, but he's a free agent after this season. In every one of his starts, there will be literally millions of future dollars at stake.
Barry Zito
2012 stats: 15-8, 4.15 ERA, 189.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP
Better or worse in 2013? about the same
2012 was billed as somewhat of a "redemption" year for Barry Zito, even though his ERA was identical to what is was in 2010, when he was left off the post-season roster. Somehow, last year he became the Giants' most reliable starter down the stretch, and then had a couple of career-defining moments in the playoffs. The fact is, Barry Zito is kind of like Matt Cain. Because Barry Zito is Barry Zito. Which makes him nothing like Matt Cain. He's kind of like Lincecum, in that Zito is in a contract year, but the most likely scenario we'll see is more of the same: some good starts, some bad starts, and some mediocre starts, all adding up to a passable fifth starter. Given how much attention his last contract got him, his next one will be absolutely fascinating to me.
Ryan Vogelsong
2012 stats: 14-9, 3.37 ERA, 184.1 IP, 1.39 WHIP
Better or worse in 2013? worse
Hey, Ryan Vogelsong, I think this is the year your Cinderella story comes to an end. Your 2011 All-Star appearance and 2012 playoff heroics? Flukes! That's what I say. And so does everybody else. If you were really this good, it would have shown up earlier in your career. There are plenty of stats out there that suggest you're about to fall off a cliff. What are you gonna do about it? I'm not buying it. You'll be back in Japan in no time. You suck and you'll never amount to anything. Prove me wrong.
Bullpen
2012 stats: 3.56 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Better or worse in 2013? slightly better
Affeldt, Lopez, Mijares, Kontos, Casilla, Romo. All of those guys are returning for 2013. The only new addition will fill the void left by Mota, and it looks like it will be Chad Gaudin. Nothing ground-breaking here. Those numbers from last year look pretty pedestrian -- I remember the bullpen being better. Perhaps that's because due to injury, some innings had to be taken up by some scrubs. Can't count on an injury-free season, but I like this group, so I'll give them the benefit.
If you look closely at the pitching stats from last year, the Giants were actually not all that great. They were 5th in the NL in ERA, but 11th when accounting for ballpark effects. In looking at the above, I think the pitching staff, as a whole, will be marginally better, but not drastically so. And if AT&T plays a bit more like an average park, the raw numbers will look similar.
So what have we learned? Both the line-up and the pitching staff are essentially the same as last year, and I'm predicting that they will perform at about the same level. Riveting stuff. I can't believe I'm not getting paid for this.
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